Fresh Start will ruin 2.0

[Azurymber]

Stop making real life example and give us example what will happen in FFXIV. No don't even try to bring up how FFXI relic weapon works and how someone will just get it on first day because so far we don't have anything like that.

There are too much IFs and worrying over nothing and please dear god stop bringing up FFXI. What will happen in FFXI or what has happened in FFXI stays there. Give us what will happen at current FFXIV economy.

There are 2 general scenarios.
1. Gil gets downplayed. To avoid problems like dynamis prices or relic weapons they just never implement anything that relies on gil. As a result there is no longterm incentive to store up gil or farm, resulting in a reduction of economic transactions. Ex. People stop selling most stuff.
2. They assume that both types of servers are the same, implement policies that work on one server and not on another, forum rage, mass quits, game economy completely falls apart again (kinda like 4 months after release).

There are other possibilities too. I'm not saying option 1 is necessarily going to kill the game.

But option 2 would severely hurt it. Especially if SE makes decisions based on old servers, and new servers find npc prices too high. I'm going by past experience with SE. They don't know how to handle a game economy. They couldn't pull it off in FFXI and pretty well killed it in favour of rare/ex stuff. And they completely butchered it in FFXIV. The ironic part was that FFXIV was supposed to be an economy-centered game where you could main as a gatherer or crafter.

I do seriously think at some point RMT will unload billions into the old FFXIV servers, especially with the merges. And that will result in serious hyperinflation and long-term destability. Imagine 5000 million gil entered the economy within a week at christmas. Prices for high-demand equip will rise by a lot. People won't be sure what prices are worth, so they will stop selling stuff and buying stuff. Many people who don't buy gil and don't have 50mil+ stored up will be unable to afford anything good. People will quit slowly. And over time the economy may level out. But it will take months or years.
SE will then try to counter inflation by implementing very high gil sinks, and people on new servers won't be able to take part. They will rage that the prices are unfair, quit, etc.

Now what if that happens december of the 2.0 launch? Instant hyperinflation with a new influx of players. And poor choices in dealing with the hyperinflation. Its a very easy way to lose a large chunk of your population right after re-launch. And a very easy way to kill any chance of expansions.

If SE is competent it wouldn't happen. But so far they haven't shown it (at least economy-wise)

[Chardrizard]

So what does different server policies gonna do if RMT decides to unleash trillions of gil into server? hyperinflation is gonna happen anyway lol? since it only effects crafted equipments, it has nothing to do with NPC prices and such.

Also, high demand equips so far has only been raids/primals gears. What makes you think RMT destabilizing market is gonna effect anything?

and before you counter above argument with "OH THEN CRAFTED GEAR IS USELESS", no it's not useless as we've said alot of times, but they are not rare, materials are all over the place, and so is crafter. Everyone can easily farm their mats and make their own, people that doesn't do those will rely on raid gears, as they always have right now.

so my question is.. What makes you think RMT destabilizing market is gonna effect anything (if they managed to do it anyway)?

Also for new player, we have ton of gears provided from cheap NPCs and mini-bosses and raids. So they won't be effected at all. New influx of new players quitting is really out of the question. If they do quit, it will not be because they can't purchase armor from ward.

[Pandastirfry]

Rather than say "zomG your economics is soooo wrongggg" why don't you show whats wrong about it?
I gave the definition of GDP and linked to a wikipedia article.... I'm sure that's all wrong though. Wikipedia is just a conspiracy to trick the average person into believing things that "they" want you to think, right? The Illuminati are really the ones controlling gil levels!

And I don't think you are grasping the concept of how an economy with billions of gil circulating is different from one with no gil.

Let me put it this way:
There are 2 islands totally separate from each other.
Island A, and Island B
On both islands you can make 1000 gold coins a day

Now on island A, most people have 500,000 gold coins saved up.
On island B, most people have less than 10,000 gold coins saved up.

The supply of chocolate bars is equal on both islands. It takes the same amount of work and effort to produce a chocolate bar on Island A as Island B.
In any free market, Island A will have a higher chocolate bar price than Island B. Why? Because island A is experiencing inflation (note: this is assuming the monetarist view. But even under other theories the same thing would occur)

What do I mean by inflation you say? Well think logically. If in 2010, every citizen of island A on average has 100,000 gold. And then by 2012, every citizen on average has 500,000, it means that the amount of gold circulating in an economy has increased 5-fold. That means that 1 piece of gold is now worth 5 times less than it was...

So apply this to ffxiv.
On an old server having 1-million gil may be equal to 100k gil on a new server (value wise).

Confused?
Lets simplify
You have 100 people per server. Each has an average 5000 gil. So there is 500,000 gil overall in the economy
If you have 20,000 gil you have 20,000/500,000 or 0.04% of the world's gil.

Now lets say you are on another server.
You have 100 people per server. Each has an average of 50,000 gil. so there is 5,000,000 gil overall in the economy
If you have 20,000 gil on this server you have 0.004% of the world's gil. That means you are 10 times poorer than you would be on the "new" server with less gil.

So, by logic,
Lets say SE sets prices for things like airships, dynamis-type entrance fees, crafting materials, etc, based upon how much gil you -CAN- make.
What that means is that if an old server has 10 times more gil than a new one, it is 10 times easier for those on the old server to purchase whatever is being sold.

Put another way, if I spend 1% of my gil on a dynamis entrance fee, someone on a new server would probably have to spend 10%.

In reality, there has been so much exploitation and so many people have over 100mil, that its more like 50 to 100 times easier.

Of course if I -only- did leves, i would be in the same situation as a new player. But I can craft, farm, and gather, and then sell that. Since there is so much gil in the economy, I will always be able to sell my goods for 10 times or more than new servers. Thus I will always have 10 times or more of an advantage when purchasing anything from an npc.

And you might say "nuh uh, the servers will balance over time". But why would they? Players on new and old servers will on average generate the same amount of gil into the economy from the "system". However, on old servers there will always be those billions of gil floating around. So the old servers will always have a massive advantage over new servers when it comes to purchasing anything from an NPC.

I have mentioned many solutions, like diff prices for diff servers, gil sinks prior to new servers, etc. But the chances of SE making good decisions are low, as if they treat one server different than another, people will complain and rage.

I just provided a mathematically based economic explanation of the difference between two servers with different amounts of monetary circulation. If you don't agree, respond in an educated way. Not "ALL LYIESSSSSS"

Again you are comparing incomparable things.

let's take you islands example: To islands that are completely isolated from each other and have no trade... each have the same supply of chocolate bars and the same demand for them... however apparently the mineral wealth of each island is disporportiante, Island A has more mineral wealth in the form of gold than that of Island B, you of course are presupposing that on Island A due to the mineral's relative abundance that it will have the exact same starting value as Island B where gold is relativley scarce, because as we all know what is considered rare by one culture and used as Currency, is considered rare and used by a Culture that has it in abundance (EX: Spain and Mezzo America in). Secopnd you have yep to show any meaningful way in which the economy of Island B will effect the closed system of Island A and vice versa, on top of this you are basing all of your numbers and subsequent terrible guesses that have never panned out on a static currency/goods supply. and this is not an example of inflation. Inflation would be if the was a sudden shortfall of cash or chocolate on either island and demand stayed constant resulting in a increase in the price of chocolate, or a sudden influx of either cash or chocolate driving the value of on or the other down... What you have described is equilibrium pricing in seperated markets, like for instance the fact that in North Carolina, Gas is $3,45 9/10 per gallon, but in California it is as high as $5.00 9/10 per gallon yet the cost of a barrel of crude oil is the same across all markets.

HOW EXACTLY WITH CHARTS AND GRAPHS! do closed economies with the exact same earning potential, and moneytary inputs and outputs and no contact between each other some how magically affect each other and are somehow cpmpletely immune to their own market forces and also WHY would SE adopt the dumbest pricing structure for NPC items ever devised by man. You have so far completely failed to show why SE would want to use dome or the worst buisness sense or why it would be neccessary to balance all server economies at all.

[Bharata_Senka]

This whole argument is ridiculous. OP originally started by saying that "Fresh Start Servers" would not work because of {insert poorly constructed argument here}.

So what is gonna happen when they need to introduce new worlds because existing worlds are at capacity? Do you think we're going to stay at 10 servers indefinitely, just because SE doesn't want things to turn out the way that Azurymber thought they might back in that one thread? If the game becomes popular and successful, are we all going to run around with server lag so bad because we have 50,000 ppl logged in at one time? No, MMO's add new worlds/servers all the time.

FFXIV economy will always balance out, because the ability to gain money through leves and quests are a constant, and the rest of it is based on supply and demand.

The only thing that will cause the in-game economy to spiral out of control is Gil-sellers. That is the only potential problem here, not new servers.

[Azurymber]

So what does different server policies gonna do if RMT decides to unleash trillions of gil into server? hyperinflation is gonna happen anyway lol? since it only effects crafted equipments, it has nothing to do with NPC prices and such.

Also, high demand equips so far has only been raids/primals gears. What makes you think RMT destabilizing market is gonna effect anything?

and before you counter above argument with "OH THEN CRAFTED GEAR IS USELESS", no it's not useless as we've said alot of times, but they are not rare, materials are all over the place, and so is crafter. Everyone can easily farm their mats and make their own, people that doesn't do those will rely on raid gears, as they always have right now.

so my question is.. What makes you think RMT destabilizing market is gonna effect anything (if they managed to do it anyway)?

Also for new player, we have ton of gears provided from cheap NPCs and mini-bosses and raids. So they won't be effected at all. New influx of new players quitting is really out of the question. If they do quit, it will not be because they can't purchase armor from ward.

most people want to have the best gear possible. Thats the point of an MMO, to become "elite" or whatnot. If it wasn't then SE wouldn't focus so much effort onto endgame stuff, and instead create fun mid-level stuff.

If there is inflation, the best gear prices would skyrocket out of the reach of any new player. That combined with a reduction in market transactions leads to people complaining that they will never be able to afford the best gear. That leads to SE doing something.

[Azurymber]

Again you are comparing incomparable things. http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/n...reply&p=710277

let's take you islands example: To islands that are completely isolated from each other and have no trade... each have the same supply of chocolate bars and the same demand for them... however apparently the mineral wealth of each island is disporportiante, Island A has more mineral wealth in the form of gold than that of Island B, you of course are presupposing that on Island A due to the mineral's relative abundance that it will have the exact same starting value as Island B where gold is relativley scarce, because as we all know what is considered rare by one culture and used as Currency, is considered rare and used by a Culture that has it in abundance (EX: Spain and Mezzo America in). Secopnd you have yep to show any meaningful way in which the economy of Island B will effect the closed system of Island A and vice versa, on top of this you are basing all of your numbers and subsequent terrible guesses that have never panned out on a static currency/goods supply. and this is not an example of inflation. Inflation would be if the was a sudden shortfall of cash or chocolate on either island and demand stayed constant resulting in a increase in the price of chocolate, or a sudden influx of either cash or chocolate driving the value of on or the other down... What you have described is equilibrium pricing in seperated markets, like for instance the fact that in North Carolina, Gas is $3,45 9/10 per gallon, but in California it is as high as $5.00 9/10 per gallon yet the cost of a barrel of crude oil is the same across all markets.

HOW EXACTLY WITH CHARTS AND GRAPHS! do closed economies with the exact same earning potential, and moneytary inputs and outputs and no contact between each other some how magically affect each other and are somehow cpmpletely immune to their own market forces and also WHY would SE adopt the dumbest pricing structure for NPC items ever devised by man. You have so far completely failed to show why SE would want to use dome or the worst buisness sense or why it would be neccessary to balance all server economies at all.

close economies don't effect each other. But if you have 10 closed servers, all with a different economy, and SE tries to fix them -ALL- because 4 are broken. It will fix the 4 and hurt the other 6. Thats the point. If SE treats each server different there isn't a problem. But if they try to treat an inflated economy the same as a balanced economy, it will have serious repercussions.

Image if you tried applying the current monetary policy of austerity in Greece to the U.S. The U.S's economy would collapse within a few days.

And market forces only work if you have a relative equal amount of currency in all markets.
In other games they usually don't do "fresh starts" and instead let ppl transfer over. If they do a fresh start, they usually have a balanced economy where theres like 1mil gold going in every day and 1 mil coming out. So the new server will balance with the old servers in a few months.

The problem with FFXIV is that old servers are full of botters and exploiters who made 100's of mil.

[Azurymber]

This whole argument is ridiculous. OP originally started by saying that "Fresh Start Servers" would not work because of {insert poorly constructed argument here}.

So what is gonna happen when they need to introduce new worlds because existing worlds are at capacity? Do you think we're going to stay at 10 servers indefinitely, just because SE doesn't want things to turn out the way that Azurymber thought they might back in that one thread? If the game becomes popular and successful, are we all going to run around with server lag so bad because we have 50,000 ppl logged in at one time? No, MMO's add new worlds/servers all the time.

FFXIV economy will always balance out, because the ability to gain money through leves and quests are a constant, and the rest of it is based on supply and demand.

The only thing that will cause the in-game economy to spiral out of control is Gil-sellers. That is the only potential problem here, not new servers.

I explained this fairly clearly.
FFXIVs economy will -never- balance out.
Why?
Old servers currently have lets say 5000 mil
new servers have none

so day 1:
1mil goes into economy, 500k comes out

old server: 5000mil 500k
new server: 500k

a month later:
old server: 5015mil
new server: 15mil

Both servers will increase gil at the same amount on average. But theres no reason why new ones would reach the amount of gil in old ones.

[Firon]

I explained this fairly clearly.
FFXIVs economy will -never- balance out.
Why?
Old servers currently have lets say 5000 mil
new servers have none

so day 1:
1mil goes into economy, 500k comes out

old server: 5000mil 500k
new server: 500k

a month later:
old server: 5015mil
new server: 15mil

Both servers will increase gil at the same amount on average. But theres no reason why new ones would reach the amount of gil in old ones.

Just stop posting please that makes no sense does not matter if server 2 only has 150 mil total cause it will be balanced for them.

[Chardrizard]

most people want to have the best gear possible. Thats the point of an MMO, to become "elite" or whatnot. If it wasn't then SE wouldn't focus so much effort onto endgame stuff, and instead create fun mid-level stuff.

If there is inflation, the best gear prices would skyrocket out of the reach of any new player. That combined with a reduction in market transactions leads to people complaining that they will never be able to afford the best gear. That leads to SE doing something.

Yes most people want to have the best gear possible, but when one isn't obtainable, they will go for alternatives, which in this game have many alternatives for every slot.

It's very different than FFXI where you need to wear Hagun until u can get SAM relic weapon, in this game u have choice of 3 primals weapon currently, GC weapons, green raid weapon which all perfomrs very closely to each other.

Your scenario only works if best items comes from craftable and triple above melds.

Because we have our own hierarchy in this game, There is no best craftable items unless you double/triple meld it. We will never have best craftable items if it's not melded.

[Azurymber]

Just stop posting please that makes no sense does not matter if server 2 only has 150 mil total cause it will be balanced for them.

I realize for -them- it will be balanced in the sense of supply + demand.

My point is, if SE tries to fix the OTHER broken economy, lets say via gil-sinks, it will UNBALANCE the non-broken one.

So if server A has inflation and server B is balanced, the policies to fix inflation on server A would -hurt- server B's economy

I don't know how much clearer I can be about this.