ARR Gil Cap Reduction

[NoctisUmbra]

Except it wont drop by 90%. An item that currently sells for 1mil will likely NEVER get down to 100k.

Interesting... and what exactly do you base this assertion on? I mean we can all assume what we want and pretend we're discussing, or we can look at some facts. If we don't have enough facts, we can at least study the current market and in this case the reason behind the prices placed on items.

Let's go along with your example. What sort of goods can we expect to find selling on the market for ~1 mil? Some materia? Uncommon/melded/HQ gear? New, high demand items that have just hit the market? For all of these things, how does one determine the value to sell for in game? Are they really based on cost?

On the contrary almost everything selling for 1 mil in game is selling for that price as a means of supply/demand. Supply/demand isn't primarily influenced by the good's cost when the scale tips towards higher demand and lower supply. No matter how high the demand is, nobody is going to be willing to continue to pay 1 mil for something when 1 mil becomes 10x more difficult to make. The sellers in turn are going to have no trouble drastically lowering prices until sales start flowing again and a new value is found in the market that satisfies supply/demand.

So, considering how the market works at such high values, prices dropping from values such as 1 mil to that of 100k is not impossible. It is inevitable.

[Punainen]

Interesting... and what exactly do you base this assertion on? I mean we can all assume what we want and pretend we're discussing, or we can look at some facts. If we don't have enough facts, we can at least study the current market and in this case the reason behind the prices placed on items.

Let's go along with your example. What sort of goods can we expect to find selling on the market for ~1 mil? Some materia? Uncommon/melded/HQ gear? New, high demand items that have just hit the market? For all of these things, how does one determine the value to sell for in game? Are they really based on cost?

On the contrary almost everything selling for 1 mil in game is selling for that price as a means of supply/demand. Supply/demand isn't primarily influenced by the good's cost when the scale tips towards higher demand and lower supply. No matter how high the demand is, nobody is going to be willing to continue to pay 1 mil for something when 1 mil becomes 10x more difficult to make. The sellers in turn are going to have no trouble drastically lowering prices until sales start flowing again and a new value is found in the market that satisfies supply/demand.

So, considering how the market works at such high values, prices dropping from values such as 1 mil to that of 100k is not impossible. It is inevitable.

I would have continued to discuss this with you, but you're beginning to get really self-righteous and condescending, so I'm done.

[NoctisUmbra]

I would have continued to discuss this with you, but you're beginning to get really self-righteous and condescending, so I'm done.

Yikes. Here I thought I was just applying logic. I can't even find a part in what I wrote that would be considered condescending, but perhaps I've misjudged your sensitivity in that regard. In that case I apologize.

[PandaTaru]

Interesting... and what exactly do you base this assertion on? I mean we can all assume what we want and pretend we're discussing, or we can look at some facts. If we don't have enough facts, we can at least study the current market and in this case the reason behind the prices placed on items.

Let's go along with your example. What sort of goods can we expect to find selling on the market for ~1 mil? Some materia? Uncommon/melded/HQ gear? New, high demand items that have just hit the market? For all of these things, how does one determine the value to sell for in game? Are they really based on cost?

[...]
It is inevitable.

Yep, very interesting- And you do yours based on what? You're basically saying, it's ok to reduce our amount of gil to then say "hey, who cares we can just sell stuff for the same price as before to get it back" which make the measure useless smarty.

The only thing this measure will do is frustrate people and drive the demand of RMT like many people pointed out. Yes it will and it's based the fact that the exact same thing happened before in FFXI. Never played FFXI? Here is what happened; gil was hard to make, RMT started to sell gil for cheap and people picked the easy way by buying gil instead of trying to make gil. The thing ended up with SE finally banning RMT after the price at the AH skyrocketed and having 1m was like having 100k a couple of months back. I really mean a few months like 3 or 4. If even one of all the economic models worked, we'd live in a paradise. Never underestimate human stupidity.

[NoctisUmbra]

Yep, very interesting- And you do yours based on what? You're basically saying, it's ok to reduce our amount of gil to then say "hey, who cares we can just sell stuff for the same price as before to get it back" which make the measure useless smarty.

You-...I-... wha? Where did you get the idea that I was suggesting people continue to sell stuff for the price from before and make their gil back or whatever. I never so much as implied such a notion.

My entire post is a sequence of cause and effect. Unfortunately, we cannot predict the future in this case with any hard evidence.

I can understand how it may be confusing to grasp, as seen by the popularity of people actually believing SE is simply gonna remove any gil we have in excess off 99,999,999 come ARR - and they support this notion with Bayohne's post that they won't be wiping any gil which I fınd very ironic.

Let me try to clarify:

1. Everyone's gil is reduced to 10% of it's previous value. All NPC sale values are reduced to 10% of their previous value. All gil rewards are reduced to 10% of their previous value. Re-denomination. 1 ARR gil = 10 1.XX gil.

2a. Buyers have significantly less gil than before when they consider the not-yet-adjusted market wards values and therefore they do not buy anything as paying 1mil for something now would amount to having paid 10m for it before.

2b. Sellers notice that nothing is selling like it used to at the old prices and repeatedly drop prices until things sell. Technically they wouldn't be losing any profit at all until they go below 10% of the previous sale price. This means they won't have any trouble dropping prices by large values at a very quick rate. Even the most stubborn of them will be forced to.

3. New supply/demand rates are met and new prices are achieved in the market - likely eventually hovering around 10% of what they used to be.

[PandaTaru]

[...]

Let me try to clarify:

1. Everyone's gil is reduced to 10% of it's previous value. All NPC sale values are reduced to 10% of their previous value. All gil rewards are reduced to 10% of their previous value. Re-denomination. 1 ARR gil = 10 1.XX gil.

2a. Buyers have significantly less gil than before when they consider the not-yet-adjusted market wards values and therefore they do not buy anything as paying 1mil for something now would amount to having paid 10m for it before.

2b. Sellers notice that nothing is selling like it used to at the old prices and repeatedly drop prices until things sell. Technically they wouldn't be losing any profit at all until they go below 10% of the previous sale price. This means they won't have any trouble dropping prices by large values at a very quick rate. Even the most stubborn of them will be forced to.

3. New supply/demand rates are met and new prices are achieved in the market - likely eventually hovering around 10% of what they used to be.

Even if what you said was a supposition, this is fantasy/dreamer economic based on no other facts than what you think will happen. What's even more amazing is how you seem to completely ignore the fact that reducing the total gil and NPC prices will also make it harder for everyone, and even harder for new players, to make gil than it is now in your theory. In the end the psychological effect of seeing a lower number will be quickly chased away by the frustration of having a hard time making gil and the inflation that will happen. Be it player driven inflation or, for a worst case scenario, RMT driven inflation. Again, stop dreaming and don't underestimate human stupidity.

[NoctisUmbra]

Even if what you said was a supposition, this is fantasy/dreamer economic based on no other facts than what you think will happen. What's even more amazing is how you seem to completely ignore the fact that reducing the total gil and NPC prices will also make it harder for everyone, and even harder for new players, to make gil than it is now in your theory. In the end the psychological effect of seeing a lower number will be quickly chased away by the frustration of having a hard time making gil and the inflation that will happen. Be it player driven inflation or, for a worst case scenario, RMT driven inflation. Again, stop dreaming and don't underestimate human stupidity.

Making 10x less gil as opposed to before is not the same as it being more difficult to make gil if the new gil value is a re-denomination of the old one. Difficulty in making gil would be based on how many avenues one has to earn gil and the relationship between how much NPCs sell for vs how much an average player makes. Both of those things will be remaining the same.

You're really caught on this idea that you need to get back into the millions to feel rich, whereas being the hundreds of thousands will be considered very well off.

[PandaTaru]

Making 10x less gil as opposed to before is not the same as it being more difficult to make gil if the new gil value is a re-denomination of the old one. Difficulty in making gil would be based on how many avenues one has to earn gil and the relationship between how much NPCs sell for vs how much an average player makes. Both of those things will be remaining the same.

You're really caught on this idea that you need to get back into the millions to feel rich, whereas being the hundreds of thousands will be considered very well off.

You're talking like everyone will follow the redenomination move like robots once the measure is in place. For things to work like you say, we'd have to play a solo game with only NPC in the game.

Where did I say I needed to get back the millions the redenomination eat to feel rich? Don't make things up please. I'm saying that redenomination won't have the psychological effect SE intended when it happen.

You're the one stuck up with the idea that redenomination will work forgetting in the process all the negative points that invalid your argument. Here's another side effect redenomination will have; new players won't have much in their gil bank and will think they're poor, they'll overprice the items they sell at the ah and after a floating period everything will be at the price it was in v1.0. Everyone will hit the cap sooner than in v1.0, they will start to not care much about the selling/buying price and prices will explode even more.

[Sounsyy]

Sellers notice that nothing is selling like it used to at the old prices and repeatedly drop prices until things sell. Technically they wouldn't be losing any profit at all until they go below 10% of the previous sale price. This means they won't have any trouble dropping prices by large values at a very quick rate. Even the most stubborn of them will be forced to.

Because this is exactly what happened with class only armor/weapons, triple melds selling for 10mil+, giantsgall weapons, sellable militia gear, explorer's jewelry, etc... NOT. None of these pieces have dropped drastically in price just because no one is buying them. Players want their money. You either pay up the 6mil+ or you're not buying my Militia Bracelets. They can stay in wards til Judgement Day but I'm not going to drop them down to 600k.


EDIT: Also, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say he didn't have 71.8mil in 1.0.

[NoctisUmbra]

Because this is exactly what happened with class only armor/weapons, triple melds selling for 10mil+, giantsgall weapons, sellable militia gear, explorer's jewelry, etc... NOT. None of these pieces have dropped drastically in price just because no one is buying them. Players want their money. You either pay up the 6mil+ or you're not buying my Militia Bracelets. They can stay in wards til Judgement Day but I'm not going to drop them down to 600k.


EDIT: Also, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say he didn't have 71.8mil in 1.0.

I'm sorry... did a redenomination occur before now in XIV? Oh it didn't? Ok then... cool story bro.

Comparing basic supply/demand price changes with what would happen in a redenomination shows how lost you are. I urge you to educate yourself on what redenomination means.

Anyone who knows how it works will immediately drop their prices on say... the militia bracelets to something close to 600k because they understand that 600k is the new 6mil. When people start dropping you can keep yours up for 6mil until Skynet starts bombing the world if you'd like... nobody will care.