Sure in the current system people are likely to repeat the mistakes of the past, because the reality is we do not allow them to really move past their mistakes. Personally I think it would be hard to move past something if you are always reminded of it. Having the capacity to do something does not mean they will do it, and I do not think we should base our stance around that assumption. Sure we have people that are serial offenders, but I do not think we should threat everyone as such.
Sure if we go based off the current data where we have people that go to prison then are released to do the same action it does not look good. Though from my view I say we should look why did they repeat the action, I feel a lot of has to deal with the fact that the system often puts them back in the same desperate situation that caused them to lead to their first offense. The person may be willing to change, but simply unable to advance due to the nature of the fact they their desire of change does not reflect their options to change.
Get out of prison work a dead end job since getting employment is rough, struggling to make ends meat because you are barely making a livable wage forced to work a second job which leads etc . . . all these stressors I feel cause a person to feel that same sense of hopelessness that may have lead to lapse in judgement in the first place. Do not get me wrong I do think some people in this world are just broken so to speak, but I do not think that is the case for everyone and I do feel people if given the proper chance can and will learn from their mistakes. It is just about giving the person the opportunity after they served their punishment.
In end though when it comes to my own forgiveness if someone wants to take advantage of my kindness and view it is weakness cool. That is on them, though please do not mistake my view as I will let someone walk all over me repeatedly. I just feel the current system does not do much to allow the person the the proper means to learn from their own actions thus they are easily repeatable. Just like I do not agree with warnings since people view them as a one time pass. I think we should not have warnings at all even in our legal system.
In end I think it is unfair, unreasonable, and navie to expect a different outcome if you literary put the person in the same exact situation they were in prior to the offense. So sure I would be for a fair three strike system do x amount of things in y time frame you are out or if you do not do negative actions for y amount of time we will drop the negative action. Though I do not think it would be fair to have that system but pick and choose what action is forgettable or not.