Having done some of the 2* crafts myself, even if you use all HQ ingredients on something like the body pieces or main/offhands, it's diluted by the things you can't HQ (the materia) I could get as close to 3k starting quaility (though 2k is more than enough), it doesn't change the fact that in order to get that 100% HQ rate, you'd need at least 10 stacks, out of the 13 or so HTs you can get in and in the end, you still rely on that 80% to succeed (or 90% even if you're doing the MaMa method, and I've had my fair share of having more than 4 flawless synthesis fail, which means I need to use an extra CSII to finish). No matter how you slice it, your chances of success hinges on your hasty touches working (or getting good conditions so you can get CP to use precise touch, to reduce the need for hasty touch). No amount of assessment improves the chance of success, it only minimizes the chance of losing your materials (knowing when to bail out and reclaim). Just because they have to frequently use reclaim does not nessescarly mean they are doing something wrong in their rotation; there's a cookie-cutter one that works quite well, but it still has its fair share of misses because it relies on 90% flawless synthesis and 80% hasty touches to work (and unfortunately, this is probably the safest option too)
No matter the method you try to apply, you always have a static portion (which may or may not have RNG attached to it), that is, how you finish the craft through CSII. The other half is increasing the quaility, and we're not just slamming our buttons on HT blindly, we're already taking every counter measure to giveit the best sucess rate, gaining CP where we can afford it (TotT when we can afford to lose a stack of SH) if it happens, and using precise touch in place of HT. But half of that isn't even making adjustments on the go; most 2* crafts incorporate waste not II and they all use 7 out of 8 attempts on it to make the full use of out of it, so you can't afford to use TotT on the good anyway..
In the raid example, the crits only occur on auto attacks, which is the least of your worries as far as outgoing damage is concerned. Comparing it to the success rate of hasty touch is a far shot because the two are not equally important in their respective areas.
In context of the topic, it'd be so much better to just allow you to resume the craft from where it left off upon logging in. Its utterly infuriating lose materials for a 2 star craft because of a random disconnect on SE's end, and this was before the favor change so it effectively took 90 minutes of gathering to make that item.