Heavensword 2* Red Scrip Crafting Rotation

[Silverbane]

Begin with MAMA CZ IQ (use TOT) now SHII flawless repeat every good use precise touch till done. Refresh CZ. Can anyone argue this is bad?

Yes. First, that Steady Hand II (SHII) should be SH, Flawless Synthesis (FS) has a 90% success rate so SH II is a waste.

I look at this in terms of CP used and the odds of getting the number of successful FS that you need. Without SH you get up to 13 FS, with SH you get 12 of which 5 are guaranteed.

Let's say you need 9 to succeed:

Odds with SH, 5 guaranteed + 4 out of 7 at 90% = 99.73%
Odds w/out SH: 9 out of 13 at 90% = 99.35%

So if you need 9 success, you spent 22 CP to increase your odds of that by 0.38%

But what if you need 10 successful FS?

Odds with SH, 5 guaranteed + 5 out of 7 at 90% = 97.43%
Odds w/out SH: 10 out of 13 at 90% = 96.68%

So if you need 9 success, you spent 22 CP to increase your odds of that by 0.75%.

Worth it? That depends on the crafter I think. In the case where only 9 success are needed, I think I can find a better use for the 22 CP.

That said, an interesting option to consider is not using the SH right away, but instead use it after, say, 2 of the first 7 FS fail or are converted ToT. This allows you to spend the CP and MaMa slot on SH only if you get some good (ToT) or bad (FS fails) luck at the start.
Consider the case where you need 10 successful FS:

first 5 FS succeed (59% chance), odds of getting 5 more successes in remaining 8 is 99.5%.
5 of first 6 succeed (30% chance), odds of getting 5 more successes in remaining 7 is 97.43%
5 of first 7 succeed (9% chance), odds of getting 5 more successes in remaining 6 is 88.57%

Clearly, if only 5 of the first 7 succeed, using a SH to guarantee the last 5 makes sense.
If you only need 9, you might want to wait to use SH until 3 of the first 8 FS fail.