Quote Originally Posted by Leiloni View Post
I'm not a math wiz, but I'm going to try to follow the logic of this sentence and equation. Draw is on a 30 second cooldown and Shuffle on a 60. So you can draw a card 3 times a minute. 2 of the 6 cards are the ones we would want. This means we have 1/3 chance to get something useful on one Draw and 2/3 chances on another draw (1/3 on second Draw, then another 1/3 after you Shuffle the one you don't want). I still can't seem to figure out what the first 1/3rd refers to in that equation? I know it's Friday afternoon and I'm tired so maybe I'm way off base, so Ghishlain can you explain it? I'm curious the thought process.
I'm no statistician, so anyone with more knowledge in field can correct my logic if I'm mistaken. If I recall my math properly, here's the logic.

The first 1/3 is the chance of you drawing the desired card (Arrow / Balance). This is a 33.3% probability

The second half of the equation is 1/3 * 2/3. This is the math to indicate the probability of drawing Arrow / Balance again if you had the opportunity to re roll your chances. You have a 2/3 chance to require a re-roll, and in that re-roll you have a 1/3 chance to get the card you want - hence the 1/3 * 2/3 = 2/9 or 22.2% chance.

You combine the two probabilities together to ascertain the probability of acquiring an Arrow / Balance card in two attempts, which is 55.5%.

With the assumption that I intend to RR my first card (regardless of the situation), my second draw will always be at the one minute after I potentially used a shuffle two draws ago, so I will always have shuffle up at the same time I'm drawing the card I want to use my RR effect on.