Connecting the DoTs: A Summoner Guide

[Havenchild]

snip

I read your math but I am not convinced. Largely it seems like you are looking at it from a GCD point of view and not the potency that you are getting on the tick.

Right between that Bio II application and that Miasma application is gonna be 1 server tick where Bio II is solely ticking for 35 potency.

The next server tick, you are very likely to catch both Miasma and Bio for a total of 110 (All three DoTs). More to the point if you factor in any kind of precast of Bio II.

Which means the only difference between Bio II -> Miasma -> Bio I + Fester vs Tri Disaster -> Ruin I -> Ruin I is 75 (ticks you gain from Miasma and Bio you gain on the first server tick) + 160 2 ruins = 235

235 doesn't beat a 300 potency Fester +20 application of Miasma to warrant the AF cost. You would have to at least get 3 Ruins to beat a Fester if we factored out the Miasma application potency. This is of course assuming Tri-D doesn't have some initial hitting potency as well as us needing to add at least three skills to the opener.

[pandabearcat]

stuff

You say "very likely" etc, I say "find the average case and remove randomness from your model".

Essentially the prorate on Bio II means, there will ALWAYS be one tick, and a SLIGHT chance of 2 ticks.

Similarly, for miasma, there is a decent chance of 1 tick, but not guaranteed, which you already agree with.

When taking the average case, we can assign expected values to the damage, and the expected value is not "very likely" it is "average case", which means out of 100 bosses you'll maybe get 90% with 2 ticks and 10% with 1 tick, but the model already takes that into consideration.

I'm not sure what the deal is here.

Lets give another example, a simple one, with just 1 dot.

I cast my dot, then wait 4.5 seconds.

So basically you have

[0-2.5] - no dot
[2.5 - 7] - dot

Now how much damage did that dot do?

It has a chance of two ticks (if first tick is between 2.5 and 4 sec, or to be more precise if the first tick is between -0.5 and 1 sec, so that the second tick with dots is between 2.5 and 4 sec), and chance of 1 tick (if first tick is between 4 sec and 5.5 sec, or, to be more precise, if the first tick is between 1 and 2.5 second, so that the second tick with the dots comes up between 4 and 5.5 sec).

So instead of going, at 7 seconds, it has a 50% chance of 1 tick and 50% chance of 2, you say, okay, the time the dot is active is 7-2.5 = 4.5 seconds.

This is equivalent to an average case of 4.5/3 = 1.5 ticks, and we multiply damage. Will you ever get 1.5 ticks? NO. But you will get 1 tick 50% of the time and 2 ticks 50% of the time.

This is an appropriate method of finding expected value of dots when their application times do not sync up...otherwise you use terms like "very likely", and you have fuzzy math.

EDIT: I also want to clarify why I chose 6 seconds as the "stopping point". At 6 seconds you are guaranteed EXACTLY 2 ticks, no more, no less. So, we can guarantee 2 ticks for the tridisaster model. By also prorating to 6 seconds, we guarantee that our model of "ticks every 3 seconds" now syncs up, regardless of how we applied our dots, so we no longer have to prorate anything. We assume at that point onwards all dots are ticking for both models.

[Havenchild]

So basically you have

[0-2.5] - no dot
[2.5 - 7] - dot

Isn't this assuming 0 precasting? So literally, The tank pulls, THEN I decide to use Bio II?

When in actuality what I do, is let's say at 4 seconds before the mob is pulled, Im already popping RS + POT + Casting Bio II. So I mean unless by some terrible stroke of luck, I just missed the DoT tick by micro seconds, I would get a first tick in that 0 - 2.5 window a Bio II dot tick and then by roughly 4 - 5 seconds I have all 3 up.

I guess the difference between what I'm saying and what you're saying, largely seems when do you actually count 0 seconds.
When the encounter starts? or when the first DoT goes up.

I use the first DoT (which falls in that 0 - 2.5s window) and work with potency per sec while if I'm not mistaken, you are using when the encounter start time and looking at it from a potency per GCD.