Q> Which do you think has a better chance between the two of these jobs of actually being added in this expansion or a future expansion.
I think both will make it in.

Many of your concerns are based on a single interpretation of the job.

Blue mage wasn't really known as a sword-wielding job until FFXI. (They could use them in V, but really, RDM have been the "sword-wielding" mage since FF1). Stragos in VI was mostly using rods. Quina is using forks and such. Khimari was using spears. Quistis whips. "Gun Mage" was the Blue mage of FFX-2.
Blue magic is often more useful for its unique support and healing abilities than its damage -- once again, a difference that comes mostly from FFXI.

Geomancer in the traditional FF have always been about attacking enemies with the land. Your spells were random, free, and based on the area of the fight. Which often meant attacking with the elements the monsters are made of, and would be healed with. Geomancer in FFXI was turned into a support-caster, which is a role we are missing in FFXIV and would make more sense that changing your attacks based on the area you're in. Not like elemental spells have actual elemental affinities anyway so far in XIV....