Live Letter XXX Discussion Thread

[Maero]

Actually some of that gear looks alot like what is it Sohm Al gear? And also ironworks...
Have to reuse assets i guess, lol
Everything else aside from Moogle Beast Tribe should be good, and could it be possible Relic may now be useful for jobs it was not

[SpiritMuse]

Actually some of that gear looks alot like what is it Sohm Al gear? And also ironworks...
Have to reuse assets i guess, lol

It doesn't really. The Sohm Al gear is all furs with bared shoulders for many jobs. This just has some fur trimmings. There may be some minor stylistic similarities (with the ironworks gear as well) but it's not even close to being reused assets.

[Yukiko]

Your calculations about 50% are all in vain because its incorrect from the start.
We have to deal with a PRNG and therefore the "rules" are a bit different.
I will not explain Random Number Generators once again but you having too many odds because of bias fluctuation caused by one generator for many players...
Those 50% are not "real" 50% and abandon diadam have nothing to do with ilvl 210, *sigh* i dont play since yesterday and not only i know players personally who have given up, some already left the game and playing other things. HELL, even MrHappy is not playing FFXIV as frequently as he was used to...

Pegasus Mount: 5,1% (all worlds)
Fenrir Mount: 1,5% (all worlds)

Hunting Hawk: 0,5% (all worlds)
Bluebird: 8,9% (all worlds)
Nutkin: 2,7% (all worlds)
Paissa Brat: 2% (all worlds)
Tiny Bulb: 3,4% (all worlds)
Wind-up Tonberry: 9,4% (all worlds)

If you consider the time the pets are in game (Bluebird as example) or if you compare with more frequently used content as Wind-up Echidna (0,9%) or Puff of Darkness (16,9%) or lets give an example for quest based with Midgardsormr (58%) you can calculate how it will end with the new content...

[Felis]

Be realistic, you WILL not get a portal more often than just once a week if you dont buy all maps from market board...

Then don't do it solo?
1 map each day in a treasure hunt full party (everyone have at least 1 map) give you already 56 maps each week.

[bass9020]

Then don't do it solo?
1 map each day in a treasure hunt full party (everyone have at least 1 map) give you already 56 maps each week.

Exactly this, maps should be a full party thing now to make the odds better for a portal to pop. If you are only doing ONE map then thats a waste of a map.

3.3 on all maps should be done with 4-8 and never solo or with just one map.

[Yukiko]

Then don't do it solo?
1 map each day in a treasure hunt full party (everyone have at least 1 map) give you already 56 maps each week.

Where did i say i do it solo?
We were farming maps when they were released with 24, after a while with 10, later on just 4, and what is left is not even doing them regulary, maybe sometimes if one is desperate we gather the players to help him but fun is long lost!

History of Diadem is even worse, there we started with 100+
End was same, abandoned content...

Edit: Your calculation is strange, dont you share loot? I dont think everyone is giving their "map loot" too you!

[Kaze3434]

Your math is flawed. We have 50% to continue at each gate, but since we got kicked out if we failed, the chance we reach a floor is directly tied to the chance we reach the previous floor. Also, what Arinnaid calculated, is the chance we "can" reach a specific floor, from the beginning in one section. It will only stay 50% chance for every floor if we have 7 doors to choose at beginning and WON'T get kicked if we open the wrong door.

In regards to your gathering example, it is not the same. Think of gathering at 95% but if you failed a hit it close the gathering windows right away, even if you haven't finished all your attempts. That would be the equivalent to this situation.

(Sry, just realized someone posted about this already pls move on and ignore me xD )

i was using the gathering as an example to this games rng. what i am saying is that you cant view each room as tied together. not in terms of rng anyway, because you can still get the odds of someone finishing a dungeon.

note, this is for this games rng

for example, you beat the enemies for the first room. for that room, you have a 50% chance to move to the next one. you pick the right door and move on to the second room. beat the monster again, and doors come up. your chance to continue doesnt get cut in half in the second room, as there is still only two doors, so it is still 50%. this is one reason why its flawed thinking when someone gets mad about melding materia that has a 26% chance. odds say that by the 4th meld, it should go thru, but each meld is independent from the previous one.

[LorenzoMoranta]

Yoshi-P looks so tired. Take care of yourself!

[Nezerius]

Your calculations about 50% are all in vain because its incorrect from the start.
We have to deal with a PRNG and therefore the "rules" are a bit different.
I will not explain Random Number Generators once again but you having too many odds because of bias fluctuation caused by one generator for many players...

In the long run, it'll still be a 50% spawn rate on the portal, since that's the number that has been stated in the live letter.

Those 50% are not "real" 50% and abandon diadam have nothing to do with ilvl 210, *sigh* i dont play since yesterday and not only i know players personally who have given up, some already left the game and playing other things. HELL, even MrHappy is not playing FFXIV as frequently as he was used to...

It had everything to do with i210 gear. Diadem was very much alive when it was released, because the random stat combinations allowed for i210 gear that was better than the Gordias or Eso gear. The majority of the players were there to farm mobs for this gear, which is why there were threads complaining about the few players that'd decide to gather instead of helping to kill mobs.
It was then mostly abandoned when the droprate on the i210 gear was reduced, and then further abandoned when 3.2 was released, as the i220+ gear made the Diadem grind obsolete.

If you consider the time the pets are in game (Bluebird as example) or if you compare with more frequently used content as Wind-up Echidna (0,9%) or Puff of Darkness (16,9%) or lets give an example for quest based with Midgardsormr (58%) you can calculate how it will end with the new content...

You also have to keep in mind that the Puff of Darkness was a rare drop when most players ran that content, and then turned into a 100% drop afterwards, when WoD wasn't ran as much.

[Ariannaid]

i was using the gathering as an example to this games rng. what i am saying is that you cant view each room as tied together. not in terms of rng anyway, because you can still get the odds of someone finishing a dungeon.

note, this is for this games rng

for example, you beat the enemies for the first room. for that room, you have a 50% chance to move to the next one. you pick the right door and move on to the second room. beat the monster again, and doors come up. your chance to continue doesnt get cut in half in the second room, as there is still only two doors, so it is still 50%. this is one reason why its flawed thinking when someone gets mad about melding materia that has a 26% chance. odds say that by the 4th meld, it should go thru, but each meld is independent from the previous one.

There are two different (yet related) concepts that people have been discussing here, and it's important not to confuse them.

The first, which we'll call event probability, represents the chance of any one isolated action happening in a certain way. In the map dungeon scenario, this would be the chance when opening a door that you'll get the correct door. As I briefly mentioned in my original post, this may not necessarily be 50% depending on SE's exact implementation, but it's easier to assume that it is. What this means is that any time you clear a room and go to open the door to the next room, you'll always have a 50% chance of your chosen door being the correct one. That is, regardless of whether you're opening the door to the second room or to the seventh room, you still have a 50% chance of being right.

Another way of representing this is to say, "Given that I've already reached the N'th room, I will always have a 50% chance of reaching the N+1'th room."

This should not be confused with the other concept, cumulative probability, which represents the chance of a given series of events happening in a certain way. In the map dungeon scenario, this would be the chance of reaching a particular room without any pre-conditions. What this means is that if you wanted to figure out your chance of reaching, say, the third room--before you even pop the map in the first place--you need to consider it in the context of the chain of events that will lead you to that outcome. For that particular example, it's very straightforward to derive the cumulative probability using the individual event probability form discussed above:

You have a 50% chance of having the portal spawn once you beat the initial pop.
Given that you had a portal spawn, you have a 50% chance of selecting the correct door from the first room.
Given that you made it to the second room, you have a 50% chance of selecting the correct door from the second room.

Therefore, the probability of making it at least as far as the third room is the product of the individual event probabilities, or (1/2)^3, which works out to 12.5% for any given map. Of course, this doesn't mean that if you did 1000 maps, you would make it to the third room exactly 125 times, but any given sample set should be close to that proportion--assuming SE is using a reasonable PRNG algorithm in the proper way; all bets are off if that isn't the case.