As I mentioned there are pros and cons to both rotations. But I never said I expect two 90% flawless to fail. I simply presented statistically the success rates of each option. They are statically similar in success rate but as highlighted the Muscle memory does suffer as more rapid synths fail. On the other hand it benefits from having more CP overall to have more basic/precise touches. Tip on the sim the progress estimate isn't accurate unless you include all attempted progress steps (including ones you wouldn't do unless the others failed) that is why neither probability is accurate when looking at the full rotation.

The Flawless approach has some notable cons as well not discussed here. Such as Blacksmith not having enough cross class skill slots such that they must choose between ToT, Innovation, and Reclaim. Some others have to also choose between two from ToT, Innovation, and Reclaim. In comparison with Muscle Memory only Leatherworker must choose between two from ToT, Innovation, and Reclaim.

With this said Innovation is harder to place in the Muscle memory approach, I would only use it directly before the last SHII (and only if there was enough CP for no more hasty touches). But thanks for the notes as its good to compare and contrast ;-)