atma drop rates

[Duuude007]

Except no.

It's RNG. Just because, say, the average was 1/100, that doesn't mean you WILL get an atma on the 100th try. It's more like:

(1/100)/100

For every single 1 attempt you make, your chance would be a 1 out of 100 chance. This is not a stacking statistic. Completely static. You will always be rolling 1/? chance because the given "rate" is unidentified, as the system is based purely on RNG.

I really wish these "theorists" would stop trying to "explain" how to "guarantee" drops.

Theorists?

I am simply stating actual results.

It took roughly 2000 fates to earn 65 atmas.

No atma took longer than 10 cumulative hours, if you were curious. For every very long wait time, there was a very short wait time to counterbalance.

Law of large numbers- The more often that you have the same conditions repeated, the more stable the resulting frequency will become.



Most people who do atmas, stop at 12, or even fewer atmas.
A very small sample size.

I have offered a considerably larger sample size. I know it is not perfectly accurate, as having more samples, ad infinitum, collected in the same manner will further assist in its accuracy.

It is the same reason that people complaining about 5 sequential misses on a 90% chance-to-gather node, are not considering the chances across 100 or 1000 gathering attempts resulting in a more accurate "average 90%".

So! We simply need a large, carefully tracked tally of the number of specific fates it took to get any individual atma drops. Simple. Right.

I know there are others who have gotten more atma than myself, perhaps they can contribute their results.

[Khalette]

Theorists?

I am simply stating actual results.

It took roughly 2000 fates to earn 65 atmas.

No atma took longer than 10 cumulative hours, if you were curious. For every very long wait time, there was a very short wait time to counterbalance.

Law of large numbers- The more often that you have the same conditions repeated, the more stable the resulting frequency will become.

<Snip>

So! We simply need a large, carefully tracked tally of the number of specific fates it took to get any individual atma drops. Simple. Right.

I know there are others who have gotten more atma than myself, perhaps they can contribute their results.

I'm impressed, and I'll actually be happy to share with you what I've done. I'll make sure to start keeping track. I started yesterday and didn't get one, so I'll start the data with a fresh batch of numbers.

[A_Magical_Unicorn_Rider]

I'm glad to see you've provided statistics for an average. That is what I was referring to.

Unfortunately, a law of averages won't apply to formulae whose averages have not been determined by the creators publicly. Therefore, it is an infinite chance one will acquire atmas over the course of the time spent hunting them.

Unless yoshi decides that he's going to reveal the rate.