
Originally Posted by
Themis
The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.
If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.
So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.