Over 36 RL hours farming my last Atma and counting

[Roris]

Thank you, you just completely proved my point. Learn how RNG works.

Except some people got it in a day by doing less than 50 FATEs so there goes any point about long lasting content and fairness.

[KenzieLynch]

Except some people got it in a day by doing less than 50 FATEs so there goes any point about long lasting content and fairness.

That depends on how you look at it, really. RNG is in many ways the MOST fair you can possibly get in a game of this type, that's why it's so often used.

[Bufkus]

Except some people got it in a day by doing less than 50 FATEs so there goes any point about long lasting content and fairness.

And some people win the lottery, your point?

Why are you so sad that the game can't hand things out equally to all?

[Themis]

You obviously don't understand how chance works.

The more often you do a fate the higher your chance of obtaining the atma you need, it's unlikely anyone is farming for 100 hours straight either.

Many people don't like luck and chance for this reason as it rewards the fortunate and is unfair to everyone else who has to struggle for countless hours.

The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.

If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.

So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.

[KenzieLynch]

The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.

If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.

So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.

Exactly.

I'm kind of glad I brought up the fact that many people don't understand how this works, because Jinko proved that I am right. Now maybe those who read this thread won't spend hours upon hours grinding only to get themselves in a tizzy and resort to venting on here.

[Jinko]

The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.

If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.

So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.

LOL I am aware that by doing more fates the percentage of a drop is the same, it still doesn't change the fact that by doing more you get more chances at the drop.

Come on you know what I meant !

[kukurumei]

The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.

If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.

So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.

False. Please refer to simple math you learn growing up(hopefully) more specifically Dice theory part of any statistics class.

It is in fact cumulative. Just like the probability of flipping tails 20 times in a roll, is nearly impossible to the level of you're better off winning the lottery.

It's a simple statistics, the probability of getting an atma is increased everytime you do not get an atma. That's a simple fact. Because you have unlimited tries while you only need one success.

Now the fact that the drop rate is low is a different matter, but learn the math you've forgotten before mouthing off.

You have to hit an atma within a statistical average, simply by doing fates. Every fate you do not get an atma DOES increase the chance of the next fate dropping an atma, via laws of math.

[DragonFlyy]

You obviously don't understand how chance works.

The more often you do a fate the higher your chance of obtaining the atma you need, it's unlikely anyone is farming for 100 hours straight either.

Many people don't like luck and chance for this reason as it rewards the fortunate and is unfair to everyone else who has to struggle for countless hours.

That is not how RNG works. It is the same chance when you do one fate as the next. If it's (and this is a BS number to just have) .01% chance of an Atma, then every time you do a FATE you have the same .01% chance. It doesn't get better the more you do.

[L-D-Omlette]

Snip

What he is referring to is the odds of certain events occurring in succession. If you flip a coin you have 50% chance of it being heads. If you flip it twice, you still have 50% chance of it being heads for that particular flip, however, since the odds of it being heads twice in a row is 25%, you are more likely to see tails on the second flip.

From a mathematical standpoint, lets assume that Atma drops at 2.5%. For any given FATE you have 1/40 odds of getting a drop. Two FATEs in a row would be 1/160, or .00625 percent. But, we are more interested in what our odds are each subsequent failure. So, first fate: 39/40 that we won't see a drop, or 97.5%. Two FATEs in a row: 1521/1600, or ~95%. Notice that the odds of NOT seeing a drop decreased on the second instance. In order to get odds in your favor, you need to fail 28 times in a row. Then the odds of failure are ~49%. At 100 failures in a row, your odds are ~8% that you won't get the drop.

Does this mean that you will get it at number 100? Absolutely not, just that you are more likely to. No matter how many you do, there is always that opportunity to not get the drop. Even a .00000001% chance is still a chance.

There is another assumption at work with this type of calculation in that we believe that the chances of getting an Atma are equal for each FATE. There very well could be other factors at play here, it depends on how they seed the RNG for these items.

[MagicJohnson]

What he is referring to is the odds of certain events occurring in succession. If you flip a coin you have 50% chance of it being heads. If you flip it twice, you still have 50% chance of it being heads for that particular flip, however, since the odds of it being heads twice in a row is 25%, you are more likely to see tails on the second flip.

From a mathematical standpoint, lets assume that Atma drops at 2.5%. For any given FATE you have 1/40 odds of getting a drop. Two FATEs in a row would be 1/160, or .00625 percent. But, we are more interested in what our odds are each subsequent failure. So, first fate: 39/40 that we won't see a drop, or 97.5%. Two FATEs in a row: 1521/1600, or ~95%. Notice that the odds of NOT seeing a drop decreased on the second instance. In order to get odds in your favor, you need to fail 28 times in a row. Then the odds of failure are ~49%. At 100 failures in a row, your odds are ~8% that you won't get the drop.

Does this mean that you will get it at number 100? Absolutely not, just that you are more likely to. No matter how many you do, there is always that opportunity to not get the drop. Even a .00000001% chance is still a chance.

There is another assumption at work with this type of calculation in that we believe that the chances of getting an Atma are equal for each FATE. There very well could be other factors at play here, it depends on how they seed the RNG for these items.

You're referring to frequentist/empirical probability there. But classical probability states that each individual event has the same chance of occuring, always. Which is what I assume what the system is built upon. Saying that "to get odds in your favor" you need to fail 28 times in a row is stupid, plenty of people have gone WAY over 200 consecutive FATEs without a single atma drop; and please don't tell me that these people have NOT gotten their Atma (with an 8% chance of failure, which is constantly decreasing according to empirical probability) 100 FATEs after the first hundred.

I'm just going assume that the Atma drop works this way: You have a certain chance (say 5%) of getting an Atma after finishing a fate with gold rating. If you got it, then that means that the 5% worked in your favor. If you didn't, then that means that the 95% chance of failure made you not get the drop. Also, previously completed FATEs, with unsuccessful results, DON'T affect in any way your overall chance of getting an Atma drop in the future.