Over 36 RL hours farming my last Atma and counting

[Themis]

You obviously don't understand how chance works.

The more often you do a fate the higher your chance of obtaining the atma you need, it's unlikely anyone is farming for 100 hours straight either.

Many people don't like luck and chance for this reason as it rewards the fortunate and is unfair to everyone else who has to struggle for countless hours.

The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.

If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.

So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.

[KenzieLynch]

The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.

If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.

So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.

Exactly.

I'm kind of glad I brought up the fact that many people don't understand how this works, because Jinko proved that I am right. Now maybe those who read this thread won't spend hours upon hours grinding only to get themselves in a tizzy and resort to venting on here.

[Jinko]

The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.

If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.

So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.

LOL I am aware that by doing more fates the percentage of a drop is the same, it still doesn't change the fact that by doing more you get more chances at the drop.

Come on you know what I meant !

[kukurumei]

The chance to obtain an atma following a FATE is the same regardless of how many FATEs you did previously. It's not a cumulative thing, it's a completely independent event.

If it has a 5% drop rate, that's only an average of 1 in 20. But it's a 1 in 20 chance, on average, every single time. It would be great if probability worked on the concept that, by the 20th event you will guarantee get the atma. But, no, it doesn't work like that. All it means is that, if 1000 people participated in a single FATE, and you gathered the results of who got one and who didn't, you would expect ~5% of those players (ie, 50 of them) to have obtained an atma. It could be drastically more or less, because that's only 1 event. Repeat that over 10000 events (or FATEs), and you would start to see closer to an average of ~5% of players getting a particular atma.

So it doesn't matter how long you spend doing it, it's simply probability or luck. That's why you can get people who have all 12 in 4-5 hours, and some who haven't got 1 in 30+ hours. Thus, why there is no point in farming ad exhaustium and complain about how the system is unfair etc. Of course it's unfair; the drop rate is absurdly low. But at least SE can predict that only a small percentage of the player base will actually progress to stage 2.

False. Please refer to simple math you learn growing up(hopefully) more specifically Dice theory part of any statistics class.

It is in fact cumulative. Just like the probability of flipping tails 20 times in a roll, is nearly impossible to the level of you're better off winning the lottery.

It's a simple statistics, the probability of getting an atma is increased everytime you do not get an atma. That's a simple fact. Because you have unlimited tries while you only need one success.

Now the fact that the drop rate is low is a different matter, but learn the math you've forgotten before mouthing off.

You have to hit an atma within a statistical average, simply by doing fates. Every fate you do not get an atma DOES increase the chance of the next fate dropping an atma, via laws of math.