Over 36 RL hours farming my last Atma and counting

[Alipoprocks]

12 straight hours and got 4. RNG has never been a friend of mine. </3

[Gesser]

SE, please do it via timeworn maps & not fate's.

[L-D-Omlette]

SE, please do it via timeworn maps & not fate's.

This would be a terrible idea. This would gate anyone wishing to do this in a self sufficient manner behind an 18hr lockout. Not only would you now have to wait 18 hrs to attempt to get one, the drop rate is not going to be 100%.

[DragonFlyy]

You obviously don't understand how chance works.

The more often you do a fate the higher your chance of obtaining the atma you need, it's unlikely anyone is farming for 100 hours straight either.

Many people don't like luck and chance for this reason as it rewards the fortunate and is unfair to everyone else who has to struggle for countless hours.

That is not how RNG works. It is the same chance when you do one fate as the next. If it's (and this is a BS number to just have) .01% chance of an Atma, then every time you do a FATE you have the same .01% chance. It doesn't get better the more you do.

[DragonFlyy]

This would be a terrible idea. This would gate anyone wishing to do this in a self sufficient manner behind an 18hr lockout. Not only would you now have to wait 18 hrs to attempt to get one, the drop rate is not going to be 100%.

Not to mention the people that don't have gatherers high enough would have to buy the maps and those would sky rocket due to the demand.

[Welsper59]

Not to mention the people that don't have gatherers high enough would have to buy the maps and those would sky rocket due to the demand.

They're pretty high demand as is too. At least the Boarskin and Toadskin ones anyway. Nearing 20k gil per due to higher demand than supply.

[L-D-Omlette]

Snip

What he is referring to is the odds of certain events occurring in succession. If you flip a coin you have 50% chance of it being heads. If you flip it twice, you still have 50% chance of it being heads for that particular flip, however, since the odds of it being heads twice in a row is 25%, you are more likely to see tails on the second flip.

From a mathematical standpoint, lets assume that Atma drops at 2.5%. For any given FATE you have 1/40 odds of getting a drop. Two FATEs in a row would be 1/160, or .00625 percent. But, we are more interested in what our odds are each subsequent failure. So, first fate: 39/40 that we won't see a drop, or 97.5%. Two FATEs in a row: 1521/1600, or ~95%. Notice that the odds of NOT seeing a drop decreased on the second instance. In order to get odds in your favor, you need to fail 28 times in a row. Then the odds of failure are ~49%. At 100 failures in a row, your odds are ~8% that you won't get the drop.

Does this mean that you will get it at number 100? Absolutely not, just that you are more likely to. No matter how many you do, there is always that opportunity to not get the drop. Even a .00000001% chance is still a chance.

There is another assumption at work with this type of calculation in that we believe that the chances of getting an Atma are equal for each FATE. There very well could be other factors at play here, it depends on how they seed the RNG for these items.

[evilmica]

I complained yesterday that I havent gotten atma for 3/4days and boom I got atma back to back. For some reason I got this idea. When you dont get the atma in the 30min mark that your in the zone best to move the a new location, because when I did that was honestly how I got my 2 atmas back to back.

[Dano]

do the farming casually, like 1 - 2 hours a day, dedicate your time to raiding coil / farming leviathan/moogle. It's less boring that way, I'm at 10/12 so far.

[WowSuchName]

Just helping to provide statistic
- Got all 12 in 456 fates (2.6% drop rate)
- Longest map to farm is - Atma of Lion - Outer La Noscea, spend total of 120+ fates
- Fastest map to farm is - Middle La Noscea, got atma in 2nd fate.