I would take that bet. Unfortunately neither of us will get a chance to prove the other wrong.
And that's kind of my point. FFXI didn't take a massive hit. It held its playerbase really well even in the face of WoW.
And those that did (including SWG) took massive hits to their populations.
I don't doubt they looked at the numbers and made their decisions based off them. I do believe the results bear out that it was a bad decision. The server merged as the population that had been stable before this point fell off rapidly.
The reason I chose 9 years is that XI will shortly be 12 years old. XIV is 3 years old. I want to see it get to 12 years, not 9. And not limping along waiting to be put out of its misery, but with a decent population as XI had until recently.
I suppose this is true. However we don't know how well an XI-2 would do, neither you, nor I, nor the devs because they won't take the chnce to release it. I know you think I am wrong, and I am not sure I am right. I would like a chance to know if I am right though. People say that old-style MMOs can't compete nowadays, that the paradigm has shifted too far, but there hasn't been an old-style subscription based MMO released with a large enough budget to verify this claim. FFXIV Version 1 would have been an example if they hadn't released it so damn broken.
A lot of us really enjoyed Tanaka's vision but were appalled at the terrible UI/server/engine, the copy/paste terrain, the lack of quests or any endgame, the botched attempt to make DoL/DoW able to complete the main storyline, the unusuable market wards etc. If the game had been released on the current engine, with those issues fixed, I believe we would have been over 600k now.
Well, a broken clock is right twice a day. I wouldn't use one to tell the time. If you want to dismiss someone's opinion as biased you should back up your claim or risk coming across as ignorant.