The Endless Cycle of Failing Overmelding

[kukurumei]

If the average is 100 tries it would equate to 1% probability. Could you post the math you are using to determine that 0.16%?

If the average is 60 tries (which is what I was reading and seeing myself), it would equate to a 1.6% probability (or around 1.5% more likely).

Because it's a streak. It may sound odd, but every time you fail (or succeed), your next time is increasingly likely to be the opposite.

1 success out of 100 is 1% but that 1% can happen on your very first try or very 20th try, or 21 try in any combination. 99 fails, is astronomically low, because you are basically trying to calculate the probability of combination of 99 straight tosses, not tossing 1 out of 100 success.

The difference here is the same as dice theory, in fact it's commonly call dice theory. You only need to succeed once.

There's a big difference to tell you toss a dice 100 times, as oppose to telling you , to keep failing until you reach your 99th time.