The Endless Cycle of Failing Overmelding

[zdub303]

Tera community created a "+9 or you suck" problem. From the start it wasn't the system, it was the people who shitted over the system. Let's hope ARR never comes to that with the materia system.

When you have developers trying to peg a equipment system to weight it on to 10% of the population, that the said population is forced to have 50% become that 10% you will have a crap storm.

There was nothing to do in TERA but continue to enchant your gear, and so it shouldnt be that surprising that your value in that game was placed on your ilvl, which is directly related to how high everything was enchanted. and yes im referring to the after patch %, I didn't try masterworking until they raised the % on enchanting and masterworking.

If the average is 100 tries it would equate to 1% probability. Could you post the math you are using to determine that 0.16%?

If the average is 60 tries (which is what I was reading and seeing myself), it would equate to a 1.6% probability (or around 1.5% more likely).

[Xellos2099]

There was nothing to do in TERA but continue to enchant your gear, and so it shouldnt be that surprising that your value in that game was placed on your ilvl, which is directly related to how high everything was enchanted. and yes im referring to the after patch %, I didn't try masterworking until they raised the % on enchanting and masterworking.

If the average is 100 tries it would equate to 1% probability. Could you post the math you are using to determine that 0.16%?

If the average is 60 tries (which is what I was reading and seeing myself), it would equate to a 1.6% probability (or around 1.5% more likely).

To be fair... the kn extreme mode weapon drop masterwpork very easily. Then again, i remmebr i masterworked and +12 my aginator weapon, regean sword, and the visionmaker sword. Took too much effort lol

[kukurumei]

If the average is 100 tries it would equate to 1% probability. Could you post the math you are using to determine that 0.16%?

If the average is 60 tries (which is what I was reading and seeing myself), it would equate to a 1.6% probability (or around 1.5% more likely).

Because it's a streak. It may sound odd, but every time you fail (or succeed), your next time is increasingly likely to be the opposite.

1 success out of 100 is 1% but that 1% can happen on your very first try or very 20th try, or 21 try in any combination. 99 fails, is astronomically low, because you are basically trying to calculate the probability of combination of 99 straight tosses, not tossing 1 out of 100 success.

The difference here is the same as dice theory, in fact it's commonly call dice theory. You only need to succeed once.

There's a big difference to tell you toss a dice 100 times, as oppose to telling you , to keep failing until you reach your 99th time.

[Astarica]

Because it's a streak. It may sound odd, but every time you fail (or succeed), your next time is increasingly likely to be the opposite.

1 success out of 100 is 1% but that 1% can happen on your very first try or very 20th try, or 21 try in any combination. 99 fails, is astronomically low, because you are basically trying to calculate the probability of combination of 99 straight tosses, not tossing 1 out of 100 success.

The difference here is the same as dice theory, in fact it's commonly call dice theory. You only need to succeed once.

There's a big difference to tell you toss a dice 100 times, as oppose to telling you , to keep failing until you reach your 99th time.

The chance to fail 99 times in a row with a 1% chance to succeed is 37%. It's hardly an unlikely event. You should expect to see a string of 99 fails on a regular basis if you're doing stuff that has only 1% chance of success.

[kukurumei]

The chance to fail 99 times in a row with a 1% chance to succeed is 37%. It's hardly an unlikely event. You should expect to see a string of 99 fails on a regular basis if you're doing stuff that has only 1% chance of success.

Except it was not a regular basis. That's the point of the fallacy. A person is not going to repeatability do the same rng.

It's just random number throwing, from 10% to 1.5% to 1%. that .016% was from way earlier and got carried. But this is on in any event average, not a single person.

if a 1% success, you're nowhere near going to get 99fails on average. an average of 100-120 tries don't correlate in any case.

The point has always been forum BS ruined tera's otherwise rational(if not consumer friendly) gear system. As long as you sprout "Well korean's say.." you instantly get corrupted fallacies.

ARR is doing pretty much the exact same thing, except they flat out state the percentage, to prevent stupidity on the forum, like this thread.