The Endless Cycle of Failing Overmelding

[Astarica]

In WoW they have stuff like if a quest drop didn't drop in X mobs it becomes more likely (stacking) next mob will drop it.

But in such a case you also can no longer claim that there's a 11% chance to meld, so that number itself has to change. Instead of seeing 11% all the time, you'd see that number steadily increase as you have more fails, and then people will probably complain about how the % to meld isn't consistent.

[kukurumei]

I remember TERA.... gear progression and enchanting in that game was terribly broken, man it was so horrible, I'm glad I'm not playing that anymore. I remember 112 masterwork scrolls to finally get my t14 weapon masterworked. Then of course 56 fails and still no +11, I ended up just rage quitting the game at that point.

At least in FF14 the whole game isn't centered around it and you're only pushing for small bonuses by the 4th or 5th slot.

There was nothing wrong with tera's equipment upgrade system, only the stupid rumor of a balantly inaccurate numbers posted on the forums everyone magically "believed to be true".

Tera uses a weighted system, in which 1-3 was very high (near 100%) then 4-6 was "middle", and 7-9 was "low" and 10-12 "really rare".

same with masterwork, it was "very rare". Some BS posted "koreans say it's 10%" was stupidly false, but people believed anyway. Since it took an average of 100+ attempts to masterwork it, it was likely to be .01% same with 11/12.

ARR uses a similar weighted average system, with 100% for 1st 2, and then so on. Only it caps it with a "stat cap" system, making it very unlikely for anyone to do 5 melds.

It's not rng, it was never rng. Anyone who understands basic dice theory like above will know consecutive failures the same as consecutive successes are "weighted".

ARR even shows you the percentage, and anyone with a calculator can do the math of how many attempts they would need. (I do smell 55 failures is kinda BS... the math is insanely small).

[Tercino]

I was getting my crafting gear melded by a friend and had pretty awful luck, particularly on the last few melds. Cost me all of my gil. Then I did his (he's GSM and I'm LTW/WVR). Hit 3 41-44%s and one 24%. No misses -_-

RNG can be a pain sometimes, just have to live with it.

[SchalaZeal]

eh, I feel like its warranted. You want the absolute best, it has a low chance of happening. It should not be a gimme

Then maybe they should allow melded gear to equal top drops, and not be a placeholder.

The absolute best is NEVER a placeholder for next week. It might be a placeholder for "in 6 months" when new gear exists, but not right when its out.

[zdub303]

There was nothing wrong with tera's equipment upgrade system, only the stupid rumor of a balantly inaccurate numbers posted on the forums everyone magically "believed to be true".

It may have been mathematically consistent and it worked as the creator's intended, but it was still probably the worst (and most soulless) gearing system i've ever had the displeasure of dealing with. It was truly a horrible experience. For a game with such an amazing combat system, it was a total failure of a game. I, personally, believe it was simply due to the enchanting system.

FWIW I think NA TERA was around 1.5% or so. The average was around 60 attempts from what I saw online (not the most statistically relevant analysis I know) but a lot of us saw over 100 attempts. Also I think you mean 0.01 probability or 1% and not 0.01%.

[Trihuuger]

Tera's system was a bloody abomination built by abominations. Wretched doesn't even begin to describe it.

OP I feel your pain man.

[kukurumei]

It may have been mathematically consistent and it worked as the creator's intended, but it was still probably the worst (and most soulless) gearing system i've ever had the displeasure of dealing with. It was truly a horrible experience. For a game with such an amazing combat system, it was a total failure of a game. I, personally, believe it was simply due to the enchanting system.

FWIW I think NA TERA was around 1.5% or so. The average was around 60 attempts from what I saw online (not the most statistically relevant analysis I know) but a lot of us saw over 100 attempts. Also I think you mean 0.01 probability or 1% and not 0.01%.

It is mathematically impossible to be 1.5% that is a fallacy, and why tera had such a raging hard on. The average of a masterwork before patch was like 90-120 tries. Fluctuate between tries, but most get it around 100 mark. That's not 1.5%, It's statistically unlikely to fail consecutively that many times. To fail that many times you would need a .16 % or something lower then 1%

Edit: This is because it's a streak. It is successively harder to keep not doing aka failing, with each attempt. Remember you only have to succeed just once, meaning you have to have an unbroken chain of fails which gets very very hard.

ARR flat out states the percentage, so it's more or less straight forward calculation, and yet still there's still raging going on, in the end, its just forum BS.

Most people will average out.

The problem is human penis envy and rumor mongering, and that's what happened to tera. Everyone see masters works around, so they think they are entitled to masterwork, which creates an atmosphere of "It's easy to get master work".

Tera community created a "+9 or you suck" problem. From the start it wasn't the system, it was the people who shitted over the system. Let's hope ARR never comes to that with the materia system.

When you have developers trying to peg a equipment system to weight it on to 10% of the population, that the said population is forced to have 50% become that 10% you will have a crap storm.

[Ifervan]

I can't be bothered, one great materia in each piece suffices.

[zdub303]

Tera community created a "+9 or you suck" problem. From the start it wasn't the system, it was the people who shitted over the system. Let's hope ARR never comes to that with the materia system.

When you have developers trying to peg a equipment system to weight it on to 10% of the population, that the said population is forced to have 50% become that 10% you will have a crap storm.

There was nothing to do in TERA but continue to enchant your gear, and so it shouldnt be that surprising that your value in that game was placed on your ilvl, which is directly related to how high everything was enchanted. and yes im referring to the after patch %, I didn't try masterworking until they raised the % on enchanting and masterworking.

If the average is 100 tries it would equate to 1% probability. Could you post the math you are using to determine that 0.16%?

If the average is 60 tries (which is what I was reading and seeing myself), it would equate to a 1.6% probability (or around 1.5% more likely).

[Ksenia]

I haven't even tied to overmeld. I've watched others chuck Materia II in to the wind over and over and it's enough for me. I just looks like a lesson in futility to me.