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  1. #1
    Player
    Crush3r07's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    127
    Character
    Persevering Crusher
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Lancer Lv 50

    The Endless Cycle of Failing Overmelding

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G42EY...ature=youtu.be

    Best case scenario was 11% success rate and 55 consecutive fails. Statistics for the win.
    (1)

  2. #2
    Player
    Astarica's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    484
    Character
    Olan Durai
    World
    Midgardsormr
    Main Class
    Goldsmith Lv 50
    The chance of that happening is 0.16%, or 1 in 607. That falls under the 'well, it has to happen to someone' range of probability.
    (9)

  3. #3
    Player
    axemtitanium's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Posts
    990
    Character
    Titania Basilikos
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    Thaumaturge Lv 100
    An 11% success rate means an 89% chance to fail every time. The likelihood of success doesn't change with each consecutive failure. lern2probability.
    (16)

  4. #4
    Player
    Eightbit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    116
    Character
    Eightbit Ho
    World
    Malboro
    Main Class
    Gladiator Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by axemtitanium View Post
    An 11% success rate means an 89% chance to fail every time. The likelihood of success doesn't change with each consecutive failure. lern2probability.
    The chance of him failing on any attempt never changes. The probability of rolling consecutive fail does. You can flip a coin 100 times and still have 50% chance to land on tails but the likelihood you land on tails all 100 times is not 50%, it would be very small. I won't vouch for an exact number though.

    Sorry for your bad luck OP, though I would really like to hear someone confirm the number from Astarica
    (9)

  5. #5
    Player
    Crush3r07's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    127
    Character
    Persevering Crusher
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Lancer Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by Eightbit View Post
    The chance of him failing on any attempt never changes. The probability of rolling consecutive fail does. You can flip a coin 100 times and still have 50% chance to land on tails but the likelihood you land on tails all 100 times is not 50%, it would be very small. I won't vouch for an exact number though.

    Sorry for your bad luck OP, though I would really like to hear someone confirm the number from Astarica
    This.

    Failure = 89/100 Sucess = 11/100
    55 Fails = .89^55
    Chance of 55 fails in a row = .1465%
    (7)

  6. #6
    Player
    axemtitanium's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Posts
    990
    Character
    Titania Basilikos
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    Thaumaturge Lv 100
    The probability of the event "100 tails in a row" is some absurdly small number but the probability of each coin flip stays the same. In the case of melding, it is likely (and perfectly valid) that you will get increasingly indignant after each successive failure but as far as we know, there is no "rubber band" RNG that tries to smooth out the failure rate.

    Astarica is correct though. 0.89^55 is 0.00164, not 0.001465. Not sure where you got that number.
    (3)
    Last edited by axemtitanium; 11-06-2013 at 05:14 PM.

  7. #7
    Player
    Eightbit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    116
    Character
    Eightbit Ho
    World
    Malboro
    Main Class
    Gladiator Lv 50
    Quote Originally Posted by axemtitanium View Post
    Astarica is correct though. 0.89^55 is 0.00164, not 0.001465. Not sure where you got that number.
    I'd assume number dyslexia. Or he has squeaked in another attempt.
    (0)
    Last edited by Eightbit; 11-06-2013 at 05:18 PM.

  8. #8
    Player
    MaethusXion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Location
    Limsa Lominsa
    Posts
    905
    Character
    Makoto Edakumi
    World
    Midgardsormr
    Main Class
    Paladin Lv 80
    At least you keep the item and just lose the Overmeld Materia & Catalyst. In v1 you lost everything if you botched it.
    (6)

  9. #9
    Player
    axemtitanium's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2012
    Posts
    990
    Character
    Titania Basilikos
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    Thaumaturge Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Eightbit View Post
    I'd assume number dyslexia. Or he has squeaked in another attempt.
    Looks like you're right. That number is in fact .89^56. Dunno why I didn't think to try that.
    (0)

  10. #10
    Player
    Crimson-Falcon's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    737
    Character
    Veera Aurora
    World
    Omega
    Main Class
    Pugilist Lv 70
    Quote Originally Posted by MaethusXion View Post
    At least you keep the item and just lose the Overmeld Materia & Catalyst. In v1 you lost everything if you botched it.
    no you lose them both
    (0)

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