Quote Originally Posted by Madrox View Post
His post was related to what he was talking about.
Please don't start..

There hasn't yet been anybody from what I've seen test the success rates with large enough data of melds to truly say whether or not it is correct. Everybody gives up on recording the data. The theories are backed up by not very solid information. I personally believe that since it is an automated system within the game, it is very unlikely that it is even going to be wrong in the first place.

I think it would help knowing what the percentages are based upon (100 melds, 1000, 10,000) because I am 99% sure they are correct for the reason stated above. It would also be good to know if the that the melds count the percentages are based upon go for each person or serverwide. My guess would be the percentages are server wide and are based on a high count of melds which would open the possibility of a larger gap of players getting unlucky nonstop, and getting lucky a lot. If the percentages were based off smaller numbers, there's less likely the chance people would fail 20 times in a row.
Mix that with potentially multiple people reading around the same time. I don't have a background in statistics and could easily be wrong, that just makes sense to me as an explanation of what's going on for people like the guy above me. Hopefully I was able to explain that well enough.

This thread is definitely a step in the right direction to understanding it.
The percentages are exactly that, the chance that you will successfully meld. The larger the playerbase the MORE likely that someone will have a terrible run of bad or good luck.