Quote Originally Posted by morpheus View Post
In response to the OP: "I believe that the numbers are accurate. I don't have any hard evidence"

From what I've seen the melding chances are not correct. It took me over 1200 materia to get my gamblers crown and a double meld with tier 1 materia is supposed to be around 42 percent chance. It wasn't even close to 42 percent, some times i would fail 35+ double melds in a row. I did keep track for a while and it seemed the average was about 15-20 percent chance. More closer to 15 percent imo but no where even close to 42 percent. It wasn't uncommon to fail 15 double melds in a row, finally get a double meld, then fail another 20 in a row.

The materia melding system is garbage. If you are unlucky you get screwed over while a small amount of people seem to consistently have good luck and reap the rewards from it. Would like to see a more balanced, less RNG system put in place.

P.S. This is a repost from another materia thread but i felt it applied to here too.
I appreciate the repost, I'm not going to read the other post.

Anyways you do bring up valid points. I have never attempted to meld with a materia lower than grade 3. Perhaps the melding percentage is off for grade 1 and 2 materia. I have to admit that I am rather dubious about your claim to have gone 35 melds in a row without success. At a 42% chance of success, you have a 1 in 200 million chance of failing 35 in a row. However, after a thousand + meld attempts, it is easily possible that 15-20 synths will fail in a row at close to that percentage.

And currently my numbers do slightly indicate triple melds are a lower percentage, but the difference is well within 2 standard deviations, so it is to be expected.

Also, one thing I do not believe many people understand is that the probability of a double meld occuring is completely independent of any attempts to meld you have done before them. If it says you have a 20% and you have failed the last 400 attempts, you still have a 20% chance.