Math, Materia, and How to Succeed at Melding

[Alzelia]

I plan to expand this guide to cover spirit bonding, crafting, and how to make millions of gil a day selling materia. The next part I want to have a list of popular double/triple melds for (most) every type of materia. I would love help from the community. Here is a list of every (useful) materia type. Please suggest popular double+ melded gear to add to this list. I will do my best to fill it in, but I am behind on the newest gear

Bloodthirst HP

Manathirst MP

Lifethirst HP/MP

Strength - Cobalt Mit Gauntlets

Vitality

Dexterity

Intellegence - Lightning Brand, Ivory Staff

Mind

Piety

Ironman's Will STR/VIT

Swordsman's Cry STR/DEX

Watchman's Vigil VIT/DEX

Loresman's Wit INT/MND

Wiseman's Vision INT/PIE

Vesteryman's Faith MND/PIE

Fire Materia

Ice Materia

Wind Materia

Earth Materia

Lightning Materia - Mahogany Pattens, Ivory Staff

Water Materia

Heaven's Fist (Attack Power)

Heaven's Eye (Accuracy)

Hell's Fist (Magic Attack Power) - Ivory Staff, Mahagony Pattens

Hell's Eye (Magic Accuracy) - Lightning Brand

Savage Aim (crit rate)

Savage Might (crit attack power)

Sagacious Might (magic crit attack) - Astrolabe (2 x IV), Boarskin Ringband of Storms,

Bloodflight (evasion)

Manaflight (magic evasion)

Bloodwall (def) - Kite Shield

Touch of rage (emnity+)

touch of Emnity (enmity-) - Raptorskin Satchel Belt

Edit: Could any recommend a good parser?

[ChiefCurrahee]

From what I've seen the melding chances are not correct. It took me over 1200 materia to get my gamblers crown and a double meld with tier 1 materia is supposed to be around 42 percent chance. It wasn't even close to 42 percent, some times i would fail 35+ double melds in a row. I did keep track for a while and it seemed the average was about 15-20 percent chance. More closer to 15 percent imo but no where even close to 42 percent. It wasn't uncommon to fail 15 double melds in a row, finally get a double meld, then fail another 20 in a row.

The materia melding system is garbage. If you are unlucky you get screwed over while a small amount of people seem to consistently have good luck and reap the rewards from it. Would like to see a more balanced, less RNG system put in place.

P.S. This is a repost from another materia thread but i felt it applied to here too.

Just because something says you have 42% chance to create a successful result doesn't mean 42 out of 100 WILL be successful.

It's pure Random Number Generation (RNG) per individual item. You can have 100 melds @ 42% positive meld rate and fail all 100. Yet you still have a 42% chance in a positive result.

For all those people who don't understand you can do an experiment. Go buy a 10 or 20 sided die

pick 2 random numbers for the 10 sided die and 5 random numbers on the 20 sided die. This will give you 20% of the numbers on the face of the dice. Roll the dice 100 times and record your results. How many times did your randomly picked numbers show up? 20% on the nose? Was it less than or greater than 20%?


The game doesn't keep track of every meld you make, and if you fail 4 times in a row the 5th isn't a guaranteed success for a 20% positive meld rate. It just means that every item you meld has a 20% chance to roll the magic numbers on the dice.

[Alzelia]

I updated the main post
I formatted it to make it easier on the eyes, and I highlighted the results so people can skip the math.
And lastly I added a section about the order you should meld materia.

[Sylkis]

(Raikki; post 420290)

Nothing much more interesting beyond this. For triple meld you can assume ~9% for any combination of III and IV for practical purposes.

As for cost, just sum up the costs of your equip and 2 materia and multiply by 4 for III melds , 6 for IV melds, 60 for triple IV (triple III not really practical).

[tymora]

These are the values I collected. Have fun.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...hl=en_US#gid=0

Has every value for double-meld on lvl 41+ gear with some extra values. I used the table that Sylkis posted above as a starting point.

HQ bonus is only 5% for double meld. It decreases as you meld more.
5% -> 4% -> 3.5% -> ??%

Btw, yes I know the formatting sucks.

[Sylkis]

Tier I and II melds are useless except for Gambler's Crown , in that case you wouldn't care about the tiny differences since you are melding so many. Its approximately 40%>30%>20%>20%

[DubstepNinja]

just finished an 0/13 run on double melds, I blame dalamund

[Viritess]

Popular Pie Meld for DRG would be Cobalt Haubergeon (Body piece)(Or Darksteel Haubergeon if someone actually wanted to try and blow up a bucnh of those ><; It won't be me )

Though I (as in a LS mate) will be attempting the Cobalt Hauby in the near future, so i'll record the Percentage chances for you. Can also ask if my LS would be willing to record their results for you.

[Sirakitty]

i think the moonphase plays a big role too, i can see the full moon is a good phase for double melting with certain jobs

[REDace0]

i think the moonphase plays a big role too, i can see the full moon is a good phase for double melting with certain jobs

I hear that from people, often in regard to crafting or HQ success as well, and I really really hope we don't go down that road in FFXIV. If for some reason that's currently in the game, I hope it's gone for 2.0. I do not want any of this 'face north for fire synths on windsday' stuff that I heard was actually confirmed in FFXI.

While I'm here, thanks for your post OP! I <3 math and found it easy to read. Might I suggest an alternative tl;dr?

tl;dr - Don't forbidden meld. Ever.