Revelations from Patch 7.4: Into the Mist

[Cleretic]

I agree. But I can also understand why people usually think about this connexion first, given that most of the game comes from some form os Ascian meddling or Ancient storylines. And once the Ancient arching story was over, not even a full extension in and we are again confronted to another Ascian. And while I also agree that a great story can stem from this, there are considerable chances that the writers will tie the Winterer story to the Ancients somehow.

I also like it when people make suggestions and interpretations out of the (ascian) box here on the forums. But I would tend to think the writers usually stick to what they know rather than making brand new stories when it comes to MSQ. The "all new" features are usually world building related (like Doman / First / Tural history for instance).

The entire story of the Ancients was essentially made up for Shadowbringers; they come up with new stuff a lot, they're just usually pretty good at making it feel like it was always there. I agree that the writers do have a habit of reaching back to a common gear, but this isn't how they do it; the way they usually do this is through 'guess what Allagan horror we dug up this patch', and the mystique is usually thin because it's entirely an excuse plot, 'Allagan horrors' is just a generally reliable conceit. ('Voidsent horrors' used to be a good one too, but that feels like one they've put to bed.) But even if 'Ancient shenanigans' was a new entry in that stable, and I don't think it is, the Key has remained unresolved for too long for me to believe it's something they're treating like that.

The key is kind of an uncharted territory in this respect, because we've never really had an inanimate THING that's an unresolved but deliberate mystery. The closest is Zodiark, and I think that is an intentional note being taken even if it's not on the level people are acting like it is. It's not that the key is tied to the Ancients because it's filling the same role as the last Big Ancient Thing, but I think that, like Zodiark and the Ascians, the key is being set up as a long-standing thread that we don't have the answer to right now. Now, with Zodiark and the Ascians they were written like that because the devs literally didn't have a plan; they were weaving unresolved plot threads and going 'eventually someone will come up with an answer for this and make it look deliberate'. That might be true here--they might just not have an answer for the key and are just putting that part on layaway--but Yoshi-P has been talking like they've actually planned this story, and in this case I'm inclined to believe him. In which case they're deliberately evoking the same longstanding thing, taking the same steps with more focus and intention.

All that is to say, I don't think the key was made by anyone we currently know about, Ancient or otherwise. That the reason the question has not been answered, and why all of our speculative theories have such clear holes, is because the answer has not been introduced yet.