Please confirm if there will be a 7.5 Ultimate before next Savage Release

[Daralii]

game can't "die" when you have hundreds of thousands of msq andies and rpers. Most recent lucky bancho census had 880k active players.
Also, I'm more doomer and don't believe DT will have a 2nd ultimate. Even if it is ready for release, I could see them sitting on it and releasing in 8.1. I don't think they'd unironically have ultimate, OC/FT, and criterion all throughout .5.. doesn't sound like SE.

The problem is that the majority of SE's income is XIV, and it's tens to hundreds of thousands of active players every time Lucky Bancho's census updates. I think the numbers are now back to where they were in Stormblood, so all the gains they got in ShB and early EW are just gone.

[Jeeqbit]

game can't "die" when you have hundreds of thousands of msq andies and rpers. Most recent lucky bancho census had 880k active players.

While I agree that the game won't die (it had lower than this on Lucky Bancho in Stormblood), I think we should nevertheless break down who those 880,000 probably are. Only 576,000 have beat MSQ and thus operating at the endgame, meaning:

• 304,000 are still doing MSQ, of which 50,000 are new players within the last 2 months.
• 130,000 casual/returning players (this could overlap with people doing MSQ to some extent, while others are endgame returners)
• 200,000 achievement hunters / sunk cost type players that aren't going anywhere
• We can probably assume the rest are RPers, glam enthusiasts, holding onto a house or doing raids.

I think the numbers are now back to where they were in Stormblood

They admitted around Stormblood release that subscriptions had hit about 600,000 for the first time (which was rather in alignment with LB). And LB remained 600,000 for most of Stormblood, with a few exceptions. So it does not seem quite that level unless alts have increased. However you can make arguments such as holding onto a house perhaps.

[Bryson]

While I agree that the game won't die (it had lower than this on Lucky Bancho in Stormblood), I think we should nevertheless break down who those 880,000 probably are. Only 576,000 have beat MSQ and thus operating at the endgame, meaning:

• 304,000 are still doing MSQ, of which 50,000 are new players within the last 2 months.
• 130,000 casual/returning players (this could overlap with people doing MSQ to some extent, while others are endgame returners)
• 200,000 achievement hunters / sunk cost type players that aren't going anywhere
• We can probably assume the rest are RPers, glam enthusiasts, holding onto a house or doing raids.

They admitted around Stormblood release that subscriptions had hit about 600,000 for the first time (which was rather in alignment with LB). And LB remained 600,000 for most of Stormblood, with a few exceptions. So it does not seem quite that level unless alts have increased. However you can make arguments such as holding onto a house perhaps.

exactly.. so the vast majority of active players are giga casual.. they provide a "soft landing" for SE. All the people dooming about the game "dying" are completely detached from reality. As much as i'd like for SE to raise the floor (across the board) and make more challenging content, i'm not naive enough to think that'll ever happen.

[Atma]

exactly.. so the vast majority of active players are giga casual.. they provide a "soft landing" for SE. All the people dooming about the game "dying" are completely detached from reality. As much as i'd like for SE to raise the floor (across the board) and make more challenging content, i'm not naive enough to think that'll ever happen.

I think this is a touch dangerous of a mindset, because 'dying' is not synonymous with 'shut down.' There are many, many MMOs out there, very few have actually shut down in comparison. AC, AC2, TERA, Elyon, Bless Online (like 4 times...) I'm sure I'm missing some, but the number is not huge.

Then, there are also countless games that I would call 'dead' that are online and playable today. Everquest? That's still online, when's the last time you heard about it, let alone cared? Same with EQ2. Dark Age of Camelot's still got servers up. Heck, even the OG - UO - is still totally active and available to play, heard anything about that one for years? Archeage comes and goes perennially it feels like (each time under different ownership, each time pretending "this will be the time we get it right...") Even FFXI falls into this category these days - it's not shut down, but how many people are going to start playing FFXI tomorrow?

There will come a time, if they don't figure it out, where new blood stops coming in and that is the point that the game is officially 'in trouble.' If a game cannot bring in as much new blood as the people who finally give up, it is on the fast-track to becoming a 'dead game', even if it runs for another decade.

Catering to a small hardcore population demanding ever-increasingly-difficult content is not how you bring in new blood. It's capitulation to the notion you have forgotten how to do so.

[ForteNightshade]

The last tier is normally not tied to an ultimate, so I feel that hiding this information for a boost in "engagement" with the content isn't worth burning the community again. Let players have proper expectations of what to expect with the final set of floors. Let players "play other games" if they don't want to prog a savage tier with no ultimate.

Alas, that is precisely what they will do because telling the raid community beforehand all but guarantees a large chunk of them will unsub--possibly until 8.0. My guess is they'll hop Criterion will be enough of a distraction, but I'm also predicting 8.0 won't release until summer 2027. Which means they need ways to incentivize players to stay subbed.

[TomsYoungerBro]

Alas, that is precisely what they will do because telling the raid community beforehand all but guarantees a large chunk of them will unsub--possibly until 8.0. My guess is they'll hop Criterion will be enough of a distraction, but I'm also predicting 8.0 won't release until summer 2027. Which means they need ways to incentivize players to stay subbed.

It would be pretty short-sided to do that though. People tolerated it in Shb because there was a genuine excuse for content being delayed to next expansion, but there is no excuse here. Waiting until 7.5 LL to break the news will do far more damage IMO.

[Bryson]

I think this is a touch dangerous of a mindset, because 'dying' is not synonymous with 'shut down.' There are many, many MMOs out there, very few have actually shut down in comparison. AC, AC2, TERA, Elyon, Bless Online (like 4 times...) I'm sure I'm missing some, but the number is not huge.

Then, there are also countless games that I would call 'dead' that are online and playable today. Everquest? That's still online, when's the last time you heard about it, let alone cared? Same with EQ2. Dark Age of Camelot's still got servers up. Heck, even the OG - UO - is still totally active and available to play, heard anything about that one for years? Archeage comes and goes perennially it feels like (each time under different ownership, each time pretending "this will be the time we get it right...") Even FFXI falls into this category these days - it's not shut down, but how many people are going to start playing FFXI tomorrow?

There will come a time, if they don't figure it out, where new blood stops coming in and that is the point that the game is officially 'in trouble.' If a game cannot bring in as much new blood as the people who finally give up, it is on the fast-track to becoming a 'dead game', even if it runs for another decade.

Catering to a small hardcore population demanding ever-increasingly-difficult content is not how you bring in new blood. It's capitulation to the notion you have forgotten how to do so.

I agree. thats why I put "dying" in quotes. Dying shutdown etc etc, neither will happen because ffxiv yields an roi.. "managed decline" is a better way to put it imo

[Bryson]

Alas, that is precisely what they will do because telling the raid community beforehand all but guarantees a large chunk of them will unsub--possibly until 8.0. My guess is they'll hop Criterion will be enough of a distraction, but I'm also predicting 8.0 won't release until summer 2027. Which means they need ways to incentivize players to stay subbed.

yup 100%.. they know full well if they explicitly stated "no ultimate for 7.5" before the next tier, a lot of people would just go on their vacation early.. so they intentionally keep it vague to basically ensure people who otherwise would unsub, stick around, get bis in hopes there is a 2nd ult.

[ForteNightshade]

It would be pretty short-sided to do that though. People tolerated it in Shb because there was a genuine excuse for content being delayed to next expansion, but there is no excuse here. Waiting until 7.5 LL to break the news will do far more damage IMO.

We all know SE is nothing if not notoriously shortsighted. Regardless, I doubt it will have that big of an impact. Most will grumble about it, but come back next tier like always. On the flipside, by announcing early on they risk making it harder for the midcore to casual raid crowd that stuck around to find groups. Which, in turn, might prompt them to unsub.

In other words, SE is gambling upsetting the few for the benefits of the many. Along with their bottom line, of course. That doesn't mean I like it any more than you do though.

[TomsYoungerBro]

We all know SE is nothing if not notoriously shortsighted.

Definitely can't disagree, and its the main reason I created this thread (even though feedback on the forums is rarely looked at).

Regardless, I doubt it will have that big of an impact. Most will grumble about it, but come back next tier like always. On the flipside, by announcing early on they risk making it harder for the midcore to casual raid crowd that stuck around to find groups. Which, in turn, might prompt them to unsub.

In other words, SE is gambling upsetting the few for the benefits of the many. Along with their bottom line, of course. That doesn't mean I like it any more than you do though.

Isn't this the cry the casual crowd has been saying for years now though? You'll grumble, but you'll come back next patch like always. The game is bleeding players consistently right now. This stance doesn't fit with current patterns, and there will be bigger impacts down the line instead of "greatly impacting" next tier.