FF14 player count reached the lowest point in 4 years. We lost 75% of the playerbase.

[Striker44]

As of august 2024, there were 42181 players on average playing the game on steam, as of today we are at 16481 which is a decrease of 60%. (and yes steam is a big enough sample)

Sample size can be relatively small (1000 people or less) and still be quite accurate at predicting general trends, or it can be relatively large (over 100k people) and be next to worthless for making predictions. What matters is whether the sample you are looking at is statistically random or not. Unless we can confirm that people playing the game truly choose the method they use in a way that would be considered "random" (and/or that the "profile" of Steam gamers matches the profile of those who use other login methods), then it doesn't matter how "large" the sample is - it's next to worthless.

[Ath192]

Sample size can be relatively small (1000 people or less) and still be quite accurate at predicting general trends, or it can be relatively large (over 100k people) and be next to worthless for making predictions. What matters is whether the sample you are looking at is statistically random or not. Unless we can confirm that people playing the game truly choose the method they use in a way that would be considered "random" (and/or that the "profile" of Steam gamers matches the profile of those who use other login methods), then it doesn't matter how "large" the sample is - it's next to worthless.

Serious question for people like you, who refuse to accept what is an obvious truth to most of us (That steam users are regular people who behave like any regular gamer), Why does the "profile" of Steam gamers NOT match the profile of those who use other login methods?

The thing is the world I live in is a world where I and most others use common sense. So if I see the store half empty, and I have the statistic of mastercard credit card holders telling me the store is half empty, even though I don't have the data for VISA and CASH users I am fairly certain the store is half empty. But here you are, arguing it's not. Thus, instead of just denying the truth we can all see, can you provide conclusive evidence that we shouldn't believe the obvious?

[gw1fan]

Serious question for people like you, who refuse to accept what is an obvious truth to most of us (That steam users are regular people who behave like any regular gamer), Why does the "profile" of Steam gamers NOT match the profile of those who use other login methods?

The thing is the world I live in is a world where I and most others use common sense. So if I see the store half empty, and I have the statistic of mastercard credit card holders telling me the store is half empty, even though I don't have the data for VISA and CASH users I am fairly certain the store is half empty. But here you are, arguing it's not. Thus, instead of just denying the truth we can all see, can you provide conclusive evidence that we shouldn't believe the obvious?

First, thank you for your question. To answer, as someone who has been watching this thread closely and crunching numbers, what we are trying to convey is while what you are seeing in-game with people being less present, particularly at endgame, is true, the exacerbated nature of the statement "75% of the playerbase" is not supported by the data when using one-to-one comparative methodology. Meaning, comparing the peak numbers at launch to peak numbers in the last month for Steam activity does show a -73% change. But peak to peak comparison only captures a singular moment in time, a single minute, when the number was reached which is not representative of an overall trend of activity because no one is playing all day every day (a statistically small amount keep the game running 24/7). Therefore, the more statistically meaningful number is the average which is calculated over the entire month, displaying a -61% change. A significant change, no doubt, but as Striker mentioned not that different from other post-expansion launch periods leading into the x.2 patch.

To address the other point, the largest factor why we believe the Steam numbers are somewhat questionable is because we don't have the data on what the regional distribution of those numbers is, and by doing some light looking around, it is likely that the JP servers are being underrepresented in that data. Combined with Lucky Bancho's raw data by server that reflects the largest fluctuations in server population are in NA and EU servers (also noted by Lucky Bancho as normal), we are reasonably alleging that the Steam data could be skewed to be largely representative of mostly NA and EU trends without the equalizing effect of JP. This leads us to the estimated conclusion that these numbers may represent the significant shift in the NA and EU player population, which was expected due to multiple factors both inside and outside the game, it is unclear that it can be used to claim that it represents the entire player base due to the lack of evidence that JP is adequately represented.

[Ath192]

First, thank you for your question. To answer, as someone who has been watching this thread closely and crunching numbers, what we are trying

...

This leads us to the estimated conclusion that these numbers may represent the significant shift in the NA and EU player population, which was expected due to multiple factors both inside and outside the game, it is unclear that it can be used to claim that it represents the entire player base due to the lack of evidence that JP is adequately represented.

Okay, at least it's thought out. I will tell you this, when I see 75% of users I take it as a figure of speech for a huge chunk of players being gone, taking anything completely literally will drive anyone insane and arguing to that level of specificity is not practical for a video game. We are not cracking out the formula for nuclear fusion around here.

Let's take your side a little bit here and take JP out. Whether JP is underrepresented or not is inconsequential to the game failing imho. If the game is not successful in NA, where I understand the largest population of this game resides, the game isn't successful period. NA has traditionally been the most lucrative market for this MMO and losing its biggest chunk of users isn't good for SE. The caveat here is that I don't believe JP players are all that happy or too different from steam users personally. But it's just a suspicion, so we'll leave em out.

More importantly, for us NA players, it's all we care about. If the game fails here we couldn't care less where else it went to be successful. It is the end for us.

So, to clarify, while yes, if you go literal and discuss this to a scientific certainty we don't know the exact numbers. But here is the catch, if you like a rational, normal, mainstream person zoom out for just a second, look around at the bigger picture, and take a common sense approach to the subject, you'll realize the game isn't doing as good, the population is dropping by an indeterminate but significant amount, and if it keeps this trajectory it will continue to shrink. And this, is what this thread REALLY is about. It's not about the 75% number being an absolute figure.

[DPZ2]

More importantly, for us NA players, it's all we care about. If the game fails here we couldn't care less where else it went to be successful. It is the end for us.

The end for us? The game will suddenly become unavailable in (let's face it) the United States, and only the United States?

Have you looked at the other numbers on the Steam chart for this game? The ones that were available prior to, say, the beginning of the so-called "WoW Diaspora"? The ones that showed the 'average concurrent player' count to be under 10,000; under 6,000; under 4,000.

The game was successful enough for Square Enix to continue creating expansions even with 5-10% of the all-time peak (for 1 sample period on one day) during Endwalker's release on Steam. What makes you think they'll stop selling the game to players in North America?

[gw1fan]

Let's take your side a little bit here and take JP out. Whether JP is underrepresented or not is inconsequential to the game failing imho. If the game is not successful in NA, where I understand the largest population of this game resides, the game isn't successful period. NA has traditionally been the most lucrative market for this MMO and losing its biggest chunk of users isn't good for SE. The caveat here is that I don't believe JP players are all that happy or too different from steam users personally. But it's just a suspicion, so we'll leave em out.

More importantly, for us NA players, it's all we care about. If the game fails here we couldn't care less where else it went to be successful. It is the end for us.

I appreciate your clarification, thank you. I am also of the mind that the numbers ultimately don't matter to the players, they are the domain of the company which may or may not matter to you depending on how you think the company will react to those numbers. The players only know what the see and feel. The actual lived experience with the game, and I believe you are all valid for your frustrations. Change is slow, whether due to how the development is structured or how priorities are identified and organized. I may not share your frustrations, but I believe they are valid.

I want to draw attention to the mention about how the estimated percentage drop in the NA population is expected and within normal limits to previous population counts through Lucky Bancho. NA and EU have always had the most fluctuations from the beginning, possibly by the differing attitudes toward online games in comparison to JP (see Josh Strife Hayes video "Why Modern MMOs Suck - Josh Strife Hayes Reacts"). This has been the norm every expansion, the only exception being the post Shadowbringers cycle during the pandemic. I speculate the gradual drop off after EW was due to this too, given the influx of NA players during the WoW scandal. It is my belief that Yoshida knows this truth about the MMO genre and has continued the development with the philosophy "if we focus on making something people will want to play, then they will play it". From my understanding, retention has been of little concern to them for a long time, which people are valid to criticize.

I've been playing for a long time, since 2.0. I have known the loneliness of being the only person online for months on end over and over. Friends would come back for two weeks only to leave again. I accepted that I can't force them to play. No one can force them to play. Even if there are things they want to do in the game, they still don't play because their attention is elsewhere or they can't afford it. But they do eventually come back, even if for just a short while. NA has proven it will return when the mood suits them.

[BigCheez]

Sample size can be relatively small (1000 people or less) and still be quite accurate at predicting general trends, or it can be relatively large (over 100k people) and be next to worthless for making predictions. What matters is whether the sample you are looking at is statistically random or not. Unless we can confirm that people playing the game truly choose the method they use in a way that would be considered "random" (and/or that the "profile" of Steam gamers matches the profile of those who use other login methods), then it doesn't matter how "large" the sample is - it's next to worthless.

Are you actually trying to argue that Steam players are more likely to stop playing the game based on the fact that they bought the game on Steam?

[DPZ2]

Are you actually trying to argue that Steam players are more likely to stop playing the game based on the fact that they bought the game on Steam?

I'd suppose the drop to be more because Steam players can only play one game at a time through the Steam interface, and a lot of interesting single-player games came out over the last six months.

[Catwho]

I'd suppose the drop to be more because Steam players can only play one game at a time through the Steam interface, and a lot of interesting single-player games came out over the last six months.

This here is one reason why I'd vouch that the Steam playerbase has a slight demographic difference from the rest of the PC playerbase. I don't play on my PC via Steam and I usually only play one game at a time, period. I am not constantly being tempted by other video games. If I do get a new release, it's going to be on my PS5, and I'll disappear for a few weeks to play it before returning to FFXIV. (I still need to finish out achievements in Rebirth.)

People who play on Steam are likely using that platform because they like a variety of different video games. Not that non-steam players don't like a variety of games, but there's a big reason I never bothered even making a Steam account. I'm not tempted by sales for games I don't intend to play.

[BigCheez]

I'd suppose the drop to be more because Steam players can only play one game at a time through the Steam interface, and a lot of interesting single-player games came out over the last six months.

How does this differ from other platforms?

This here is one reason why I'd vouch that the Steam playerbase has a slight demographic difference from the rest of the PC playerbase. I don't play on my PC via Steam and I usually only play one game at a time, period. I am not constantly being tempted by other video games. If I do get a new release, it's going to be on my PS5, and I'll disappear for a few weeks to play it before returning to FFXIV. (I still need to finish out achievements in Rebirth.)

People who play on Steam are likely using that platform because they like a variety of different video games. Not that non-steam players don't like a variety of games, but there's a big reason I never bothered even making a Steam account. I'm not tempted by sales for games I don't intend to play.

I legitimately don't know anyone who plays FFXIV on PC and doesn't use Steam for other games. The only difference between Steam FFXIV players and SE Store FFXIV players is that the SE Store players prefer to manage their installation for MMOs with their own launchers outside of Steam.