yeah, man. ~2500 chests popped on speed runs, that vast majority of which were "perfect" runs, leading to a ~2.6% drop rate per chest... highly speculative and unfounded, no different from your cursory guessing.
yyyyyyyyyyyyyep, sounds right.
What exactly is the misconception? The fact that there is no randomness in computers? Or the fact that actions in game affect the outcome? Neither. All i said was that IT IS POSSIBLE! YOU CANNOT DISPROVE THE FACT THAT A POSSIBILITY EXISTS. As desperate as you wish to believe otherwise. I am not saying I am right, you are wrong. I am saying we are both right and there is only one way to prove either wrong: scientifically using empiracle evidence based on observable facts.This is a misconception I've heard floating around the gaming community for years. The fact that "there's no such thing as true randomness on computers" doesn't mean that actions you take in-game are going to have an impact on the results of your pseudo-randomly generated numbers. The human brain desperately wants to see a pattern, whether it's your performance or how many lalafells you have in the party when you get a drop. In all likelihood the PRNG cares much more about how many milliseconds it's been since midnight GMT on January 1, 1970 than any factor that's been proposed on the forums.
The Speed Run condition spawns an extra chest. What don't you understand? Your performance changes the outcome of the loot. You cannot deny this fact. And somehow you think that one performance measure (time completion) is dissimilar to another (deaths) but in aactuality they are not. They are both similar in that they are based on player performance and skill. I don't understand why you valiantly deny the POSSIBILITY (NOT PROBABILITY) that they can affect the DL drop rate.
Yeah, man. You've popped 2500 chests from speed runs. Where's your excell spreadsheet? Pics or it didn't happen. U MADD BRO? If you all had half the heart of my former FFXI crafter colleagues you would have been taking note of every run in a spreadsheet. I poured through over ten thousand synthesis results in a spreadsheet in XI in search of a fabled factor that could increase HQ rate. And you're telling me you've "popped 2500 chests" ....that is vague enough on it's own. Do you mean 2500 speed runs, or 500 5 chest speed runs??? Be a little more specific. We have language for a reason. Sheesh!
i used pretty explicit language, guy. not my fault your reading comprehension is taking a hit for whatever reason.
but just to clear things up- if we'd done 2500 runs, even if averaging 2 runs an hour, that's 1250 hours of work. or 52 days. of non-stop av/cc. without any breaks of any kind. and it's been just under 52 days since patch. simple math. and so i guess simple logic would suggest my LS and i are cyborgs.
anyway, since anecdotal evidence seems to be your favorite- why don't you show us some of your detailed spreadsheets supporting your hypothesis. until then, raw numbers corroborated by many other LSs (as well as pretty much the entire JP community) win the day.
in the meantime, maybe try facing SW on firesday on a full moon wearing all red gear for dalamud and tell me if that increases your drops. chances are you'll get lucky and score a darklight piece with your whopping sample size of 5 and try to convince us this is how to get drops 100% of the time.
so have fun with that, i guess.
I'm not in BG, but I've stored searchable timestamped game logs of all of my raiding this patch. I have exact numbers on number of runs, number of DL drops, number of times each chest was opened (since each chest has unique loot you can search for and count). My exact dungeon clear total is 168 AVs and 110 CCs. With all that precision, I still get the same results as BG. I even wrote a program that checked the timestamps of our Darklight drops against the moon phase.
It sounds like you just get your kicks by pretending there's some secret way to control your luck. Maybe it's just your coping mechanism to deal with the miserable grind we're all facing.
The bottom line is that you're the one making the claim: "maybe performance influences drop rates". The burden of proof is on you to prove it, not on us to disprove it. Where are your Darklight spreadsheets?
Um.... well, The TWO darklight pieces I've seen drop were on speed runs with no deaths so yeah it's 100% true.i used pretty explicit language, guy. not my fault your reading comprehension is taking a hit for whatever reason.
but just to clear things up- if we'd done 2500 runs, even if averaging 2 runs an hour, that's 1250 hours of work. or 52 days. of non-stop av/cc. without any breaks of any kind. and it's been just under 52 days since patch. simple math. and so i guess simple logic would suggest my LS and i are cyborgs.
anyway, since anecdotal evidence seems to be your favorite- why don't you show us some of your detailed spreadsheets supporting your hypothesis. until then, raw numbers corroborated by many other LSs (as well as pretty much the entire JP community) win the day.
in the meantime, maybe try facing SW on firesday on a full moon wearing all red gear for dalamud and tell me if that increases your drops. chances are you'll get lucky and score a darklight piece with your whopping sample size of 5 and try to convince us this is how to get drops 100% of the time.
so have fun with that, i guess.
Also you forgot to wear your elemental staff (fire in this case)
You should publicly post your ever evolving spreadsheet data for your fellow community members to oggle.I'm not in BG, but I've stored searchable timestamped game logs of all of my raiding this patch. I have exact numbers on number of runs, number of DL drops, number of times each chest was opened (since each chest has unique loot you can search for and count). My exact dungeon clear total is 168 AVs and 110 CCs. With all that precision, I still get the same results as BG. I even wrote a program that checked the timestamps of our Darklight drops against the moon phase.
It sounds like you just get your kicks by pretending there's some secret way to control your luck. Maybe it's just your coping mechanism to deal with the miserable grind we're all facing.
The bottom line is that you're the one making the claim: "maybe performance influences drop rates". The burden of proof is on you to prove it, not on us to disprove it. Where are your Darklight spreadsheets?
Yes, I do get kicks by pretending there's some super secret way to control luck. You are indeed correct. I find it most amusing. This game would be so much more bland without this:
Besides I've already proven the fact that performance affects drops rates: you get more darklight by doing speed runs than not. The theory that I perpetuate as a joke more than anything is that maybe no deaths increases the drop rate because I have noticed an increase in drops when we don't die. It's just a theory, and you can deny it if you want but you can not disprove the possibility.
Have fun.
In this thread... we show off what our game addiction can reward us with.
this is truthI don't care about S-E's imagination or FFXI's crafting system. What I care about is observable evidence. We have a running joke in our shell about how we get rewarded for the rare wipe or near-wipe situation with DL drops, because DL ignores your performance. We've wiped to Mistress, finished anyway, and gotten a DL piece after 20 perfect runs over two days without any drops at all. We've done 15 perfect runs in a day and gotten three pairs of DL gloves. It's random, and it's a very low droprate overall.
I'm sure other LSs can corroborate this observation.
I like frog
In theory this is right, in practice its wrong.
Game programming loves the RND function which takes the servers time stamp to generate a number between .001 and .999 which is then divided or multiplied for various functions. Since this is taken off of the time stamps millisecond or nanosecond computation it might as well be random since its impossible to produce or reproduce results by attempting to abuse the formula. Since the number its being generated off is so fast, and not reproduce able it gives the essence of a random number, which for all intents and purposes is a random number.
You can say your chance to hit is 77%, but how does the game decide if it lands on the 77 or 23% part? Through the use of RND combined in a formula.
Anyways I just checked our spreadsheet (we document all runs drops including greens): Our Darklight drop rate is 3.1%, and yes, most runs are 0 deaths and <20 minutes. If performance had anything to do with it I bet we'd have a higher drop rate than that.
Last edited by Zdenka; 04-25-2012 at 02:35 AM. Reason: Did drop rate % formula incorrectly, fixing
Oh...so that's why my Standard Synths fail 3 times in a row after using Makers Muse...
Jokes aside, you are correct in your explanation of the RNG. But the specifics of the formulas are different depending on the activity (crafting vs mob drops) and up until now the only thing i have said is that *maybe* darklight drops *could* be affected by an additional performance factor including but not limited to time.
It i's a theory, simply put, that acknowledges that the drop rate could be affected by additional performance factors. And it is a valid one at that, as hard as it may seem to prove.
Honestly, it's a running joke in my ls, and all I want to see are some numbers from the players that spend way more time than I can farming this gear. I have seen various percentages from various players such as yourself ranging from 10% to 1.57%.
That being said, I have yet to see some spreadsheet data myself. Nor could I verify the truth of such contents other than by repeating the experiment myself. This is the scientific process that us old time FFXI crafters have applied over years time so as to increase our HQ % rate sometimes fruitful and other times mystical...
Thanks.
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
Cookie Policy
This website uses cookies. If you do not wish us to set cookies on your device, please do not use the website. Please read the Square Enix cookies policy for more information. Your use of the website is also subject to the terms in the Square Enix website terms of use and privacy policy and by using the website you are accepting those terms. The Square Enix terms of use, privacy policy and cookies policy can also be found through links at the bottom of the page.