Quote Originally Posted by TabrisOmbrelame View Post
This is mathemathicaly false. Even if you hit 3 time, you still roll 3 time with the same chance to do a crit.
You may still have the same chances on each individual hit, but the amount of damage you'll achieve will be far lower on average than on single hits due to law of statistical averages with higher attempts.

The issue with the high potency skills is that they're used very infrequently, mostly at 1/2 min intervals. This makes them far more susceptible to variance than say, your 1-2-3 combo would. If you only get 5 Double Downs in one fight for example, with the current framework, someone only needs to get 'lucky' 5 times in a fight, with only having to hit 10 rolls total (1 crit roll + 1 dh roll for each of them.) If we pretend that the person has a 30% crit rate & 20% DH rate, it means they have a 6% ish rate to hit both rolls at once.

If the damage is split into 3-4 instances of damage, variance is insanely reduced. For the example, we'll say double down was split into 4 hits of 300 potency instead. Now, to get the same damage as the single 1200 roll, each of those 4 hits would need to crit-dh individually, meaning all their rolls are independent and not influenced by each other. Meaning they each get that 6% chance. For the multi-hit Double Down to the same damage as the single hit one, we get a chance of (6% * 6% * 6% * 6%) = 0.00001296%. Practically minuscule and an insanely random event contrasted to the single hit's odds. Instead of the 10 rolls the person has to get 'lucky' on for the single hit double down, it has quadrupled to 40.

You can even see this at play in parsing on the game's older design during ARR-SB era, where most kit's potencies barely went above 500 at the top end. Getting lucky on the higher end skills of your kit had a much smaller impact on your overall damage because potency was far more spread out across the kit than focused into single huge hits. If Square wants to keep huge potency hits, then breaking them up into multi-hit smaller potency bundles would go a far way to reducing the absolutely ridiculous variance on how a single Ryoshu(? the super ice one) mudra on NIN can do anywhere from 100k-300k damage for literally nothing more than 'get lucky bro'