A new tactic for the dissatisfied

[TheOperator3712]

Gonna sound harsh but it always seems like veteran players heavily overestimate their own worth to the game lol. Aren’t there 10 new players who are going to be subbed for at least several months to finish storyline, for every 1 veteran that leaves from sheer boredom?

The game gets like this every expansion cycle lol, hell even in the later ARR patches the amount of players dropped off pretty heavily.

It doesn’t really matter how hard one tries with the ‘speak with your wallet’ tactic, it’s sadly guaranteed to fail because for every wallet they lose they’re gaining another 10. Then when those 10 wallets inevitably all quit there’ll be another 10 just starting the game, and the wheel keeps spinning.

Well yes, but actually no. Eventually the game will hit market cap and just about everyone that will ever want to give the game a go will have given it a go. So while this is currently the case, eventually the game will not be able to continue to attract new players. This was one of the contributing factors in WoW's population decline after WotLK.

The other factor that hinders a new player's monetary value now, is the extremely generous and ever increasingly generous free trial. If they keep expanding this thing it will only be another 6 years or so before 7.0 is in the free trial. At present SE are only making money off of new players that subscribe before the end of the free trial or the sub time for the two most recent expansions. And if the game doesn't convert that new player into a long term subscriber, then SE is actually losing money on the free trial.

[Connor]

The other factor that hinders a new player's monetary value now, is the extremely generous and ever increasingly generous free trial. If they keep expanding this thing it will only be another 6 years or so before 7.0 is in the free trial. At present SE are only making money off of new players that subscribe before the end of the free trial or the sub time for the two most recent expansions. And if the game doesn't convert that new player into a long term subscriber, then SE is actually losing money on the free trial.

This is a point I forgot to consider actually but you’re right, when accounting for free trials it does mean that SE are going to end up losing money if they’re putting all their eggs into the new player basket. And as you say there’s a limit to how many people can be ‘new players’, as inevitably there will come a point where everyone who wants to play the game already has, meaning new player numbers start to dry up.

[Absurdity]

This is a point I forgot to consider actually but you’re right, when accounting for free trials it does mean that SE are going to end up losing money if they’re putting all their eggs into the new player basket. And as you say there’s a limit to how many people can be ‘new players’, as inevitably there will come a point where everyone who wants to play the game already has, meaning new player numbers start to dry up.

Iirc there was already a point, early this year, where the Lucky Bancho census showed a decrease in new characters created. Maybe it's an indication that the game is reaching it's cap, maybe people are just not making more alt characters (since it goes by active characters of which a single player could have multiple), maybe it's gonna go up again with Dawntrail (that would heavily depends on what they do with the new player experience and whether or not those people have to go through 10 years of story first), who knows.

The latest census for 6.4 showed an overall decline, Active Characters decreased by 260,000 (from 1,390,000 down to 1,130,000), Returning Characters decreased by 270,000 (from 430,000 down to 160,000), New Characters decreased by 20,000 (from 100,000 down to 80,000).
What has increased are the characters that continued to be active between the last census and this one (from 850,000 to 880,000).

Granted I used google translate so take it with a grain of salt.
https://luckybancho.ldblog.jp/archives/57719554.html

[ChonkGoblinSuprem]

Those numbers have absolutely nothing to do with anything in this game and everything to do with the fact that we are now post-pandemic and people are going back outside.

Touch. Some. Grass.

[Connor]

Touch. Some. Grass.

But it’s so low-quality!

[Carin-Eri]

Those numbers have absolutely nothing to do with anything in this game and everything to do with the fact that we are now post-pandemic and people are going back outside.

Touch. Some. Grass.

Outside is just a rumor - you can't prove anything!

[Tahbitha]

But it’s so low-quality!

Not to mention that the level grind is atrocious.

[Vahlnir]

Touch. Some. Grass.

It's about 90 degrees outside. Hard pass.

[Jojoya]

So you just claim steam player base behaves very differently without source, got it.

My personal experience with friends who are Steam users:

The ones that are the heaviest Steam users are constantly jumping from game to game. Why? Because there's a massive catalog of games to try out at their fingertips and they don't want to chance missing out on stumbling across that one game they'll think is the greatest ever.

A PC player who doesn't use Steam or GOG is generally going to lack that catalog of games ready to play or at least install on a moment's whim. They're a lot more likely to stick with a game because they don't have the same ease of access to multiple games.

Friends who are playing PS4/5 can act somewhat like Steam users except they're more likely to be playing multiple games at the same time instead of jumping to one and sticking with it until they get bored then jumping to another.

Why the difference? I haven't got a clue. And of course that's all anecdotal based on my gaming friends. Others may notice different patterns with their own friends. I wouldn't say it's the entire Steam player base that acts differently from all other FFXIV players but certainly having that large games catalog sitting right there changes the playing behavior of many.

The problem we're running into with getting a Steam chart graph specific to FFXIV numbers is that we're not getting a comparison point against similar games on Steam and what variation they have in their users. Is this a phenomenon unique to FFXIV and only FFXIV during Endwalker, is it typical of all MMORPGs or is there something else going on?

I know it was typical of WoW post Wrath at least while I was still playing. There would be a huge influx of players both new and returning at the start of an expansion. By the time the first major patch came out, the game would already be down 30% or so. By the last patch, it would be down about 60%. Then the next expansion would release, the majority of players would return so the launch numbers would be similar to the prior launch numbers and the cycle would repeat. I think that held up until Shadowland, when players finally gave up and subscription numbers bottomed out.

It's easy to take a graph with numbers and interpret it anyway you want but it doesn't mean much unless you can establish what activity is considered "normal and healthy" for a particular game. Personal experience with MMORPGs says that number dropping large percentages over the course of an expansion is normal and so even if the 70% drop is accurate, it doesn't alarm me. The numbers will jump back up next Spring as we get close to Dawntrail and players return. If this game was profitable enough in SE's eyes 8 years ago when it had a quarter of the players it had at the start of Endwalker, the current population isn't going to alarm them even if alarms those who are obsessed by how many others are playing the same game they are.

It's about 90 degrees outside. Hard pass.

That's still a comfy temp as long as it's not humid. I hope it's not humid.

[AlexiaD]

.

The ones that are the heaviest Steam users are constantly jumping from game to game. Why? Because there's a massive catalog of games to try out at their fingertips and they don't want to chance missing out on stumbling across that one game they'll think is the greatest ever.

A PC player who doesn't use Steam or GOG is generally going to lack that catalog of games ready to play or at least install on a moment's whim. They're a lot more likely to stick with a game because they don't have the same ease of access to multiple games.

So I am using the standalone right ? And according to you because I have the standalone I dont have steam ?

I'm sorry but what kind of take is this

You can have the standalone, AND STEAM for other games, you literally make no sense