The forums haven't got a clue lmao don't worry.
You're right that there's a massive survivor bias here. The forums permabanned a lot of people in the past and look where we are now. This culture is now self-enforcing even without moderation.
Here's the thing: lots of people have been unfairly banned and warned for minor offenses because the ToS is incredibly strict. This includes people who got banned for listing clubs on PFs. That sparked an outrage but there are plenty of instances of inconsistent moderation that do not spark outrages too. But people like to treat that as a one-off instead of a pattern.
So why do so many people say it's fine? Because they are so short-staffed that basically everyone violates the ToS and yet nothing happens to most. However usually, you don't get an infraction because no one reports you, not because you did not violate the ToS. So while it seems random on the outside, moderation is actually almost purely report-based. Someone with a hate boner for you will report you, get their friends to report you just because you said "eff me", and if a GM picks it up, you roll another dice: each GM can be incredibly idiosyncratic and some will ban you for that while others won't.
The REAL way to avoid bans in the game? It's not about abiding by the ToS. It's about (1) making any insult ambiguous and interpretable the other way and (2) don't make enemies of Karens.
Most of the other comments on this thread have no clue what they're saying.