Quote Originally Posted by LittleImp View Post
The immense irony of trying to using sources like Lucky Bancho, MMO-Population and XIVCensus to make a point while dismissing one of the only hard data points we have ever had access to.
There is a massive difference between Lucky Bancho and MMO-Population. Lucky Bancho uses (at least I think) a statistical representation of lodestone activity (which are generally pretty accurate, like political surveys). MMO-Population is a bogus website that uses lazy data like the amount of reddit users that means nothing.

Thinking that 7.0 will surpass the Endwalker launch is an inhuman level of copium abuse, and demonstrates a complete and fundamental lack of understanding of what lead to the EW population spike in the first place.
Each expansion grew Lucky Bancho's average data by 200,000. EW grew by closer to double that. I agree that the events in 2021 are unlikely to happen again and that therefore the spike won't be as high this time, but that doesn't mean there won't be a spike.

If it grows by less than 200,000, we can say there is possibly a problem. If it grows by 200,000, we can say it's normal. If it grows by well over 200,000 we can say there has been another unusual spike.

Quote Originally Posted by Rolder50 View Post
The reason they are misleading is because they collect data over several months if not longer, then compare the data versus the last collection. So it captures every single person who did anything during that time and calls them an active player, even if they only subbed for a month and then left.
Yes, this could cause it to be misleading, but the general trend of up and down between data sets is still useful. It has remained stable at 1.3-1.4 million for a very long time now and that suggests there is not a net decline happening, even with all of the patch lulls.

Plus it would capture bots who may or may not be banned, and people who get banned for other reasons.
Of course they account for bots in their statistics.