The New Job (If Any) Added In 7.0 Will Likely Be Scouting Melee DPS

[Seraphor]

Really, magical DPS and a tank is most likely scenario. It seems like releasing jobs by role, rathter than by gear type has been more of a priority and they have actively decided to avoid 2 dps roles at once releases after Stormblood. And of 3 dps roles, one that went longest without a new addition is mDPS, who last had Red Mage back in SB. And since the second job has to not be DPS and we just had a healer, it will be a tank. Simple maths.

I don't think we can say they've "actively avoided two DPS since Stormblood" simply because it's only been two expansions and there was a more pressing need for a new Tank and Healer. This would be imparting an intention that we have no evidence for. We don't know they've "avoided" not releasing a Tank or a Healer, simply because we've only had two opportunities and each of them needed a Tank or a Healer.
Now that there isn't a pressing need for a Tank or Healer, the roles that are most 'needing' are Caster and Scouting.
And yes, they do use gear sets as justification, it was specified to be the reason why we got Reaper as a Maiming job specifically, despite the fact that it doesn't wear heavy armour and by all means could have been Striking or even Scouting. But we've had a Scouting job slightly more recently than we have Maiming. Not least, gearsets are a concern, for gearing up. Having jobs share a gearset is favourable to players so that they are able to gear up multiple jobs. Meanwhile having too many jobs on a gear set increases competition for loot. So gearsets are a valid justification for introducing/limiting jobs in certain roles.

There are many ways to define the job roles, and this seems to be intentional. Without one singular definition, it gives them freedom to be flexible.

1. You can have Tank/Healing/DPS sure. This puts us at 4/4/11, but that doesn't mean we have 7 DPS jobs too many. We all knows that's not how the playerbase has split itself and going by the jobs commonly played, there's a ratio of roughly 1:1:3 or maybe even 1:1:4, which would suggest we need between 1 and 5 more DPS jobs to balance it out. But of course, that's a loose argument because...

2. You can have Tank/Healer/Melee DPS/Ranged DPS, which puts us at 4/4/5/6. Again, considering there is a greater need for DPS than Tanks and Healers, this would suggest we're current short 1 Melee DPS.

3. You can have Tank/Healer/Melee DPS/Phys Ranged DPS/Caster DPS, giving us 4/4/5/3/3. Now we're in need of two ranged DPS from each role.

4. Then there's the gearset method, Fending/Healing/Maiming/Striking/Scouting/Aiming/Casting. 4/4/2/2/1/3/3. Now we need Scouting.

5. You could even have Tank/Healer/Physical DPS/Magical DPS for a 4/4/8/3 ratio. If you really want to cement the justification in for a Casting job.

The point is you can use any and all of these role paradigms to justify adding a job, they're all equally as valid, so you need to look further to how long it has been since a job of a specific role was last added. How long have players been waiting for a new job in a particular role?

Going with paradigm 4 just because it's the most comprehensive and includes the most roles:
Tank: Shadowbringers, 3 years
Healer: Endwalker, 1 year
Maiming: Endwalker, 1 year
Striking: Stormblood, 5 years
Scouting: ARR, 8 years
Aiming: Shadowbringers, 3 years
Casting: Stormblood, 5 years

You can give each of these paradigms different weight, and I can completely understand giving paradigm 4 the least weight right now considering that paradigm 3, the next most comprehensive, turns that "Scouting: 8 years" into "Melee: 1 year". This clearly puts Caster at the forefront.

If you go by the time since last job, the next time Tanks would be due is next time an Aiming job is due, or a Physical Ranged DPS, Both have been 3 years. Yet Tanks have 4 and Phys Ranged have 3, which puts Phys Ranged at a higher priority. This is to illustrate how you have to use both of these justifications together.

My point here is, between both role balance and time since last job in that role, at no point does Tank or Healer come up as a job in need of representation, and I think 4 of each role is a fairly well rounded selection. The only other role will so many options is the Melee DPS role, if you don't consider gearsets to be an important factor. There is no other way of reasoning a further breakdown for tanks and healers. OT and MT isn't a thing anymore, and Regen and Shield healer is a weak argument considering they can stack just fine now.