The list of addons you can use and still have a 0% chance of repercussions from SE is a nice round number, if you catch my meaning..
Any addon that you choose to use despite being told they are ALL against ToS carries some inherent chance of risk. Depending on what addon you're using and how it does or doesn't directly interact with the game files (and therefore make itself detectable to any SE surveillance that they currently use or may implement in the future), that risk may be more or less. Depending how private or public you are about your use of the addon, that risk is again either more or less. You can even apply this thinking to all of the (in my opinion) obvious non-FFXIV programs that wouldn't ever be a problem (Discord, Windows, Excel, etc.) but that people are using hyperbole to freak out about right now, if you really must.
People streaming in real time with their addons enabled and viewable on the screen after being told many times, over many years, and even in the ToS they agree to when they sign up for the game that THIS IS NOT ALLOWED are tempting fate. Would you break a law while a cop was standing 5 feet away, watching you do it in real time with their own eyes? Probably not. Same thing here.