The Reasoning behind The Sundering? (*6.0 Endwalker Spoilers*)

[EaraGrace]

I will note that several retcons have occurred that have invalidated some parts of the Encyclopedia Eorzea. The Echo, for example, no longer works at all how it was previously described. It is not connected to Hydaelyn at this time.

Right, but none of the retcons have changed anything about the role she had. We know Hydaelyn and Ramza were connected from the Ivalice raids, we have a firsthand account for that. We have Her efforts to prevent the Seventh Umbral Calamity. We have the records messaged in the Encyclopedia of visions and blessing that we’re not the Echo being bestowed on heroes at the time. And we have Venat/Hydaelyns statements on the future, on the Rejoining and the Calamities. All points in a singular direction, that she tried to halt the Calamities.

Sure. So why didn't she just tell them what the threat was? Even the Ascians would want to see the Meteion ended, and during Allag for example would have had more than enough resources to have a go at her.

Ancient Allag at its height was run by Xande and Amon, a suicidal ruler who wished to see the world end and his devoted researcher. Not to mention, the Ascians were running the empire behind the scenes, if Emets statements are anything to go by.

They were both dealing with little-c calamities. That is to say the issues of the Auspices and Ultima appear quite unrelated to the Ascians and the Rejoinings, they were just local issues. And yes she has created WoLs around the time of various Calamities, but by the very nature of our knowledge of them they seem to have a 100% failure rate. If anything their presence had only served to mark Echo-users as portents of doom.

Little c calamities and big C ones are impossible for us to distinguish. That assertion and the 100% failure rate are great examples of circular reasoning. Any effort that stopped a calamity would not be remembered as such since it was stopped and the Ascians machinations would not manifest, while any effort that failed would be remembered due to the worldwide impact and thus would be clearly Ascian caused.

But even if I accepted that, the fact remains that trying to stop and failing still shows Her priorities. Why waste time and resources trying to halt an event you want to happen?

Not to mention her most well-known creation of WoLs by far, on the First, was actually directly causing the Calamity there. And since we now know she's not just a mindless robot dispensing crystals like a slot machine, we can only presume that she knew what was going on and was actively abetting it. Presumably because she knew it had to happen to reach WoL's future, and thus meet her own ends.

This is a strong presumption to make. Exactly how much Venat knew of Mitron and Loghrifs demise, info that could only come from us, and of the Warriors of Darkness is uncertain. We could’ve told her everything, and thus it would be logical to presume she knew when she bestowed the Crystals that they would ultimately cause the Flood. On the other hand, if we only spoke of Emet-Selch and Amaurot, and his death there, then there wouldn’t be reason to believe that was mentioned.

Supporting the former is the scene with Minfilia on the First, where she tells Ardbert to wait, suggesting she knew he would be needed, though that was Minfilias decision, not Venats. There’s also the fact that he was told to wait to give us hope, not to help us in battle, once again the vagueness makes it hard to read intent. Supporting the latter is the fact that if she did want them to have the crystals, waiting until after Cyella manipulated them wouldn’t be necessary, giving them when she did would be arbitrary and an unneeded requisite. There’s also the fact that the events of the Flood had little to do with our presence in Elpis, with only Emets involvement being confirmed to be mentioned.

Either way, going off Venats later statements, I think it’s safe to say the latter is more likely.

[Veloran]

We have Her efforts to prevent the Seventh Umbral Calamity.

Hydaelyn was basically a non-entity in 1.0, no? We kind of just assume that she was creating starshowers to awaken people's Echoes, but even as the Encyclopedia says this is just a correlation. Ironically the only person we know for sure can and has created starshowers for that purpose is Elidibus, which indeed fits his MO of inspiring faith in WoLs to empower himself and simultaneously "keep the balance".

[Absimiliard]

Right, but none of the retcons have changed anything about the role she had. We know Hydaelyn and Ramza were connected from the Ivalice raids, we have a firsthand account for that. We have Her efforts to prevent the Seventh Umbral Calamity. We have the records messaged in the Encyclopedia of visions and blessing that we’re not the Echo being bestowed on heroes at the time. And we have Venat/Hydaelyns statements on the future, on the Rejoining and the Calamities. All points in a singular direction, that she tried to halt the Calamities.

Once again, I am not disputing that she tried. I am observing that she had detailed foreknowledge of all that would transpire. She knew her champions would fail time and time again, yet she chose the same ones anyway. My general assumption is that the individuals she chose to empower in any given era were the most worthy, meaning failure would have been a possibility even had she taken advantage of her knowledge of future events and selected others.

[Cleretic]

Once again, I am not disputing that she tried. I am observing that she had detailed foreknowledge of all that would transpire. She knew her champions would fail time and time again, yet she chose the same ones anyway. My general assumption is that the individuals she chose to empower in any given era were the most worthy, meaning failure would have been a possibility even had she taken advantage of her knowledge of future events and selected others.

She didn't have 'detailed foreknowledge' at all. She had our impromptu explanation, which gives her at most eight people she'd pick as champions beyond just 'here have the Blessing', every single one from the same time period (The WoL, Minfilia, Ysayle, Ardbert and the Warriors of Darkness). All of those, I should note, did their job pretty well, so no reason to waver there anyway; clearly those were good picks.

She's got absolutely nothing on any time before then. She can't have 'picked the same ones despite failing' for stopping other Calamities, because we never told her who she picked in the first place, and therefore couldn't have told her.

EDIT: Although I should say, we do have a reasonably good idea that she did pick champions who then did stop potential Calamities; Ramza and the Zodiac Braves were pretty much confirmed picks (and success stories), and Tenzen may have been, too.

[EaraGrace]

Once again, I am not disputing that she tried. I am observing that she had detailed foreknowledge of all that would transpire. She knew her champions would fail time and time again, yet she chose the same ones anyway. My general assumption is that the individuals she chose to empower in any given era were the most worthy, meaning failure would have been a possibility even had she taken advantage of her knowledge of future events and selected others.

That I think that is fair. I’m mostly arguing against the perception that Hydaelyn had other options, and choose that above alternatives because of Her foreknowledge. Taking each choice individually, without relying on what we told her, and it still ending up that way seems the most sense to me.

[Jandor]

Little c calamities and big C ones are impossible for us to distinguish. That assertion and the 100% failure rate are great examples of circular reasoning. Any effort that stopped a calamity would not be remembered as such since it was stopped and the Ascians machinations would not manifest, while any effort that failed would be remembered due to the worldwide impact and thus would be clearly Ascian caused.

Fair point, we have no idea how many, if any, she managed to stop. It might be that the Ascians only tried 8 times total, and she failed completely, letting 7 rejoinings happen and 1 shard be ruined entirely.

It might be that the Ascians had a go roughly every 1000 years and she managed to prevent 4 rejoinings.

Maybe they were even more keen than that, having a crack at it every 500 years and therefore she stopped them 16 times.

I guess we'll likely never know, we weren't there and everyone we might have asked about it is a bit dead now.

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I suppose we could try and Azem magic Venat out of the lifestream to ask her, but I suspect that the incantation requires at least a smidge of dynamis, and that 'idle curiosity' isn't a strong enough emotion to trigger the effect.

[Veloran]

Ancient Allag at its height was run by Xande and Amon, a suicidal ruler who wished to see the world end and his devoted researcher. Not to mention, the Ascians were running the empire behind the scenes, if Emets statements are anything to go by.

Allag existed for thousands of years before Amon entered the picture and resurrected Xande. And yes, the Ascians were responsible for the creation of the empire, so why not tell them about the problem when they have the capability to confront it?

Little c calamities and big C ones are impossible for us to distinguish.

They actually are quite distinguishable, because for the Auspices or Ultima neither issue was aspected to any element or accompanied by any of the notable aetheric disturbances attributable to an oncoming Calamity. Meaning, they were clearly not Calamities, but just unrelated regional problems.

But even if I accepted that, the fact remains that trying to stop and failing still shows Her priorities. Why waste time and resources trying to halt an event you want to happen?

You'll note that the passage from EE is actually saying that "heroes have appeared before every Calamity to ensure mankind endures." Not to avert the crisis, but to help mankind survive through it.

Supporting the former is the scene with Minfilia on the First, where she tells Ardbert to wait, suggesting she knew he would be needed, though that was Minfilias decision, not Venats.

Any decision made by Minfilia in that situation is easily attributable to Venat - How could Minfilia herself know that Ardbert would be critical to WoL's success, to the point of reiterating that to the both of them? And if she was not even aware that Ardbert was WoL's shard saving him would serve no purpose but to make him suffer in isolation possibly for eternity, as the two would then not be capable of communicating with one another. Her choice can only be understood with Venat's foreknowledge.

Moreover, I suggest Venat knew of the events on the First and helped push things in that direction, because it is in fact the more generous interpretation of her actions at that time. Otherwise, she was handing out Crystals of Light to the WoDs, exacerbating the First's aspecting to Light and pushing it towards a Flood, purely as a massive mistake. Even for me it's difficult to believe she's that incompetent, especially when having knowledge of what will come to pass.

[EaraGrace]

Allag…

What answer did the allagans possess to the Song of Oblivion? The issue wasn’t manpower.

They...

The Sharlayans I’m sure thought similarly of Black Rose. And I vividly remember being drowned and burned during my time with the Auspices.

You'll note that the passage from EE…

So now not only is Hydaelyn not interested in halting the calamities, but her chosen as well? Once again we have to trust that she managed to halt zero calamities, and that she managed to find heroes willing to abandon their fellows and not fight against the coming doom without ever being told why they shouldn’t resist.

Any decision made by Minfilia in that situation is easily attributable to Venat…

No we can’t attribute that, Minfilia had her own thoughts and feelings. There’s no reason to believe that she couldn’t decide for herself.

Now, I do agree Minfilia likely learned some things from Venat. Where my disagreement lies is in your next paragraph and the conclusion you come to.

First, let’s once again state that exactly what she knew of events on the First is unclear. Even if she knew that Ardbert was necessary to defeat Emet, knowing he caused the calamity is another matter.

Second, they were chosen because they were worthy. The Ascians were actively working to ensure the First be overaspected with light and the only recourse was to empower heroes to stop them, Ardbert and company were the best option and won at first. She chose well.

But let’s say she did know. You’re right that granting them the Crystals increased the chance of them being the cause, but if she did that I still don’t agree that it means she wanted the Flood to happen. The Flood, due to the efforts of the Ascians, was inevitable. And, as we know in EW, she does not have the strength to warn the WoL. So she is then left with two options. Either do nothing, have the Ascians manipulate the First to fall unopposed by WoL, and thus have no way of preventing the Flood when it inevitably happens. Or, give Ardbert and Co. Crystals that ensure they can traverse the Rift and manage to halt the Flood with Minfilia.

Further, on the idea of her pushing for the Flood, there are other issues I have with it. First this would require her and others to lie to us on multiple occasions in Endwalker and Shadowbringers, which on both a textual and metatextual level is incompatible with the stories of those expansions. Second, it would require an incredibly detailed explanation of the events of Shadowbringers, including side stories which we may or may not have completed. And lastly, if we indeed told her everything, and not a cliff notes version that would’ve left out the details of the events, then she would know that in one timeline everything failed. It would be illogical and out of character for her to risk such an outcome.

[Veloran]

What answer did the allagans possess to the Song of Oblivion? The issue wasn’t manpower.

That's nothing but the thematic conclusion. The actual resolution was WoL beating up the Endsinger. At the time of Allag they should have had the resources to go there and do that.

The Sharlayans I’m sure thought similarly of Black Rose. And I vividly remember being drowned and burned during my time with the Auspices.

We have no idea what the Sharlayans thought about Black Rose, if they did at all. And a few of the Auspices using elemental magic does not equal a Calamity, nothing at the time of Tenzen was leading into one.

So now not only is Hydaelyn not interested in halting the calamities, but her chosen as well? Once again we have to trust that she managed to halt zero calamities, and that she managed to find heroes willing to abandon their fellows and not fight against the coming doom without ever being told why they shouldn’t resist.

Ensuring that people would survive it is fighting against it, in a manner of speaking. But the issues at play were long-running societal problems and a systematic imbalance in the aether, these aren't things that can be solved by a few people being told "look out for the dudes in the black robes and masks" at the eleventh hour before it happens. Even WoL too would have failed and died were it not for time travel ex machina.

No we can’t attribute that, Minfilia had her own thoughts and feelings.

When made Word of the Mother Minfilia was literally made one with Venat's thoughts and feelings. She may have been split off to go save the First but it can hardly be said that sending Ardbert away was nothing but a bout of whimsy on her part alone.

Second, they were chosen because they were worthy. The Ascians were actively working to ensure the First be overaspected with light and the only recourse was to empower heroes to stop them, Ardbert and company were the best option and won at first. She chose well.

So the First was being overaspected with Light and the solution was to flood it with even more Light? In fact if you remember the circumstances, the Ascians were actually spreading agents of Darkness around so that Warriors of Light would come to destroy them, thus creating a supremacy of Light. It would have actually been better if none of the WoDs were ever made WoLs and the coups of the Shadowkeeper werewolf army and the legion of psuedo-Voidsent were allowed to run rampant and spread Darkness everywhere. Venat's actions were strictly negative and played directly into the Ascians' hands, this is why I say it was either done intentionally or with extreme incompetence.

And, as we know in EW, she does not have the strength to warn the WoL.

But we know from EW that she does have the strength to warn WoL. Way more than enough in fact.

Or, give Ardbert and Co. Crystals that ensure they can traverse the Rift and manage to halt the Flood with Minfilia.

But it was the Ascians themselves that masterminded that? So did she plan it all or did she not?

First this would require her and others to lie to us on multiple occasions in Endwalker and Shadowbringers, which on both a textual and metatextual level is incompatible with the stories of those expansions.

Venat lying to such a degree - and being willing to sacrifice so much in pursuit of her goals - is completely in keeping with her character, as has been showcased elsewhere.

[EaraGrace]

Snip.

No it’s not. The whole point is that you need an Answer to the Song. Sending terrified conscripts to Ultima Thule, led by someone who wants to the see the world end, would not work. And don’t underestimate the contributions of the Loporrits. It was their thousands of years of expertise in space travel, plus the Aether in the Mothercrystal that allowed our travel to Ultima Thule.

Snip.

Koryu would like a word. And my point with the Black Rose example was to show how failed calamities oftentimes miss detection by the world at large. We only learned of its light aspected nature from Emet, so saying we can’t tell by the aspect doesn’t really work when we don’t have a camera pointing at the architects.

Ensuring that people would survive it is fighting against it...

So then do we agree She fought against it? Due to the nature of position She relied on proxies to help her fight against the Ascians, and we do not have a clear understanding at her effectiveness. What we do know is that Her agents were successful on many occasions in halting major threats.

Snip.

Not sure what you’re arguing against here, but my point is that Minfilias decision post Heavensward were her own, with and without info from Venat.

Snip.

The Ascians would have no point in doing so. Creating agents of Darkness was pointless if it wasn’t in service to pushing the First further to Light, as the Firsts imbalance would be held in check solely by Mitron and Loghrif. If anything they would have just left it as is and simply focused on causing a calamity on the Source. With or without the Crystals, either way they would win (slowly admittedly), the only recourse left was to be place Her Hope in those on the First, and that worked at first. Remember, it wasn’t the defeat of Mitron and Loghrif alone that started the Flood, but Mitron being tempered,. It was a stroke of luck for the Ascians (and Minfilias sacrifice) that allowed them to find victory in the way they did.

And that’s not even including the fact that those heroes may have succeeded without her aid at all. We certainly did so in Heavensward after all.

Snip.

I once again have to point out that’s not the case. If you’re saying She should kill herself and doom all the shards to save the First, then I can understand that position. But that is was you are asking her to do.

Snip.

My point is that if she knew everything she would know they need the Crystals to make their way, we know this by the dialogue in 3.3. The dilemma before her is whether she ensures the First has a glimmer of hope or no hope, as without the WoD arrival and the boon they give Her Minfilia could not be sent to the First.

Snip.

Where did she lie.