Quote Originally Posted by Iscah View Post

It's all very theoretical and wibbly-wobbly, especially at the moment, but we can't say where the timeline splits until we are definitely past the point where the Calamity would have been triggered, but now has not.

The "original timeline" (ending in the bad future) may have always incorporated the Exarch and his attempts to contact us, while the split point could depend on whether he succeeds or not, whether we successfully complete our quest or not, whether we win the final battle or not. It might even hinge on some future point that we won't see until the patch quests.
How would that be possible if the exarch only existed because they tried to change the future after the calamity was done? IMO the old future would have just been "all scions awake doing their things, war still breaks out and thanks to us being on the field it comes to a stalemate and later we were seemingly winning? This started the use of black rose (we do know that Varis and Elidibus were talking about this when we were gone) thus the start of the calamity which seemingly brought the source nearly to its knees in the next 200 years." Seemingly that calamity was not enough to wake up Zodiark.

All of that ends with the future generation finding an entrace into the crystal tower where they also found Graha Tia. Together they found a way to travel back in time but with the tower going to the first so that he can pull them there to stop the calamity to happen on the first too.

I just cant see how the exarch would always be sent back if the bad future never happens.

I think the big change where the paths split was when we went to the first. Without us there the battles between Eorzea and Garlemald might have seen more stalemates instead of us winning it. Also us helping with the first also stopped the use of black rose because for it to be that bad the first needed to have their calamity. And then there are smaller changes like Tataru sending Estinien to Garlemald because we are all gone, or Gaius going there without Alphinaud. Heck we dont even know what the scions being awake would have changed but I do believe that the biggest change was simply us going to the first and starting to help there.