On averages you are right but from time to times you will get extreme bad luck / good luck scenarios (like failing all gathering attempts in a row with 95% success rate!). For very competitive people I guessing is not an ideal class, for your regular player the main problem will be finding a spot.
Yes, is not like ninja at all. Mistakes will cost you damage, but nothing you can't really recover. (Fail, or delay, a trick attack is a big deal. Needing a few steps more to complete a dance, not so much).
PS: You two are clones!