Fire is actually 324, as it's expected that you will be in Astral Fire III when you cast it.
Assuming BLU damage formulas have been tweaked so that its potencies correspond to the other casters' potencies (i.e., 100 potency BLU spell = 100 potency BLM spell for two casters in equivalent gear, without M&Mend traits) [I haven't verified that this is the case], Water Cannon would be 270 potency (Off-guard + M&M V) and Fire would be 421 (AF III + M&M II). Stone II (the highest available at 50) is 260 (if accounting for M&M II).
So Water Cannon is probably actually much worse off than you initially suggested.



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