This game has seriously messed up RNG

[Xyno]

Totally agree with you. RNG in gathering and crafting is really ridiculous and must be fixed

[Yeol]

99% HQ - Gets NQ food.
Well, at least even NQ sells well.

[Jib]

Welcome to the club my friend... I will introduce myself. "I" am the Warrior of Light, I have gone through a long journey, meet and defeated many great foes, primals, "Gods"... But never have i faced such an adversary that keeps spitting im my face constantly... I have yet to face him... This this RNG God! I dont know his name yet, but i like to call him Freddy...

It makes it easier to say "@uck you Freddy" everytime he gets me... I dream of the day when I finally meet him and inflict on him all the pain ️️that he deserves...

"@uck you Freddy"!!

[Rongway]

what should at least guarantee a 1 in 4

I had to stop reading the thread as soon as I read this to respond, because it shows lack of comprehension of a very important point that everyone needs to understand before we can have any sort of discussion about probability that isn't completely wrong.

If the probability is not 0% or 100%, there are no guarantees.

[Ar4093]

The main mistake in calculating your % is that the server use ONE RNG for ALL players. If it says 99% it means not only for you, it means the "next" roll. That means you actually will never have the 99% because there will always be some others who finish the same craft/dungeon/loot before you! That results in seeing from your perspective many more odds than it should have! SE does not have any net to catch odd bias. The next mistake is that SE uses an algorithm for high numbers (you remember, one RNG for all players) but you are just a single player from that high number. As example you are number 254 from a total number of 123.456.789 rolls made at same time! Statistically when counting all rolls, RNG is working fine, but for YOU it will result in seeing more odd bias.

Except this isn't how random numbers work. Each number is completely independent from the previous one.

[RubyCirha]

Well to be fair mabey the op is just unlucky I can't speek for gathering and crafting as I don't do it mutch but I'm insanely lucky with drops so like I got every pony to drop first run and won the roll I had all the pony's in 1 day now all the birds is another storry rngsus hates me in hevensward

[XSamsaraLotusX]

Rng in this game is rigged.
The roulette,the loot all of it. In dungeons most of the time you see mage drops. Its like 80-20. Some times its 2-5 days of onlly tank or dps drops on the same 80-20.

[Felis]

snip

I don't think this is how it work
It is never "200 players crafted item x at 90% chance, the next one will be HQ" nor "player Y crafted 99 item x, the next one from him will be HQ".
It is "player Y craft item X, let roll the dice"

[Driavna]

This stuff goes both ways but we tend to focus more on failures, If anything this has more to do with how unwanted non hq stuff is.

[CookieMonsta]

Edit: IMO crafting and gathering should have yes the initial success rating but scale based alot like how desunthesis works. Lets be real you crated a million of these damn leather wristbands, how often are you really going to fail at it at this point? its like rolling a d 20 for something a person can do in their sleep. "im sorry sir, you failed to turn the knob on the door, you die instantly"

What you feel and see has nothing to do what the universe decides. Whether the universe is a deterministic system or not is a philosophical debate for another time. Like I said, I can only assume the devs weren't lying when they said that FFXIV uses a Mersenne Twister system. If such a statement is true, then they are trying to implement an algorithm that closely emulates true random (while yes the algorithm repeats itself after 10^23 iterations or something).

So assuming they have built a reasonably believable true random system, it is entirely possible to miss 5 hits with a 99% chance of success. If they were lying and implemented something other than Mersenne Twister then its a different beast entirely.
And the sucky part about true random? outliers can exist. Shielded systems like what you mentioned remove the possibility of outliers, but unless you can view the source code of the game, we can only assume your information is confirmation bias.

Some citations
This is where they mentioned FFXIV uses a Mersenne Twister
http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...Random-Comment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_Twister

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias