This game has seriously messed up RNG

[Felis]

snip

I don't think this is how it work
It is never "200 players crafted item x at 90% chance, the next one will be HQ" nor "player Y crafted 99 item x, the next one from him will be HQ".
It is "player Y craft item X, let roll the dice"

[Nixxe]

The main mistake in calculating your % is that the server use ONE RNG for ALL players. If it says 99% it means not only for you, it means the "next" roll. That means you actually will never have the 99% because there will always be some others who finish the same craft/dungeon/loot before you! That results in seeing from your perspective many more odds than it should have! SE does not have any net to catch odd bias. The next mistake is that SE uses an algorithm for high numbers (you remember, one RNG for all players) but you are just a single player from that high number. As example you are number 254 from a total number of 123.456.789 rolls made at same time! Statistically when counting all rolls, RNG is working fine, but for YOU it will result in seeing more odd bias.

That makes virtually no sense. On what do you base this assertion that it works this way?

[Bluejay]

Shortly after ARB's launch I collected the results of my mining grind (several hundred) and did some analysis to see if the results matched the stated probabilities for high quality finds. I got a 95% confidence level that the results DID NOT match (which is unfortunately not really that high).

With only 95% confidence I can't say too much, but based on that an my observations I think something is up with those numbers. I doubt their random number generator is at fault. If I had to guess I would say there are factors that affect success that are not represented in those numbers. Maybe some kind of 'biorhythm' affect or weather...

The fact that the game uses so much RNG to stretch out content is another topic altogether.

[LineageRazor]

I doubt their random number generator is at fault. If I had to guess I would say there are factors that affect success that are not represented in those numbers. Maybe some kind of 'biorhythm' affect or weather...

No. Please, God no. Do NOT bring that into this game. We don't want superstitions like FFXI's infamous "crafting directions" to start to spread. (A superstition which, by the way, SE finally, FINALLY debunked, in spite of FFXI crafters swearing by it for more than a decade.) Please learn from our mistakes in FFXI. There, it was forgivable as the game DID hide a ton of mechanics from the player so it wasn't totally unreasonable to suspect that there might be hidden factors to crafting. This game, however, lays everything out on the table. All stats are accounted for and clearly explained by tooltips. There are no "secret tricks" that a crafter/gatherer can stumble upon that will improve their results.

Someone brought up the topic that, as no computer can truly be random, the game could be using a crappy random number generator that is prone to "bad streaks". If such a crappy generator exists (and if it does, I'd think it'd be equally prone to "good streaks"), why on earth would SE use it? There are plenty of random number generators out there that produce results which, as far as any human will be able to tell, are indistinguishable from pure randomness. There's no reason SE would choose a crappy one - not even price is a factor, as these random number generators are not expensive.

There's no hidden conspiracy, no secret tricks. 80% is 80%. 20% is 20%. To believe anything else is either paranoia or foolishness.

[Xyno]

Totally agree with you. RNG in gathering and crafting is really ridiculous and must be fixed

[Yeol]

99% HQ - Gets NQ food.
Well, at least even NQ sells well.

[Jib]

Welcome to the club my friend... I will introduce myself. "I" am the Warrior of Light, I have gone through a long journey, meet and defeated many great foes, primals, "Gods"... But never have i faced such an adversary that keeps spitting im my face constantly... I have yet to face him... This this RNG God! I dont know his name yet, but i like to call him Freddy...

It makes it easier to say "@uck you Freddy" everytime he gets me... I dream of the day when I finally meet him and inflict on him all the pain ️️that he deserves...

"@uck you Freddy"!!

[RubyCirha]

Well to be fair mabey the op is just unlucky I can't speek for gathering and crafting as I don't do it mutch but I'm insanely lucky with drops so like I got every pony to drop first run and won the roll I had all the pony's in 1 day now all the birds is another storry rngsus hates me in hevensward

[XSamsaraLotusX]

Rng in this game is rigged.
The roulette,the loot all of it. In dungeons most of the time you see mage drops. Its like 80-20. Some times its 2-5 days of onlly tank or dps drops on the same 80-20.

[Driavna]

This stuff goes both ways but we tend to focus more on failures, If anything this has more to do with how unwanted non hq stuff is.