This game has seriously messed up RNG

[ADVSS]

IIRC this game uses an extremely high quality Mersenne Twister RnG system. This is about as close to true random as you can get from a software perspective. True random does not care about your subsequent RnG results, it only tends to average out over extremely large sample sizes.
I would argue its because most other games use shielded or lower quality RnG engines thats why you don't suffer as much confirmation bias as this game.

im sorry missing 5 hits with a 99 percent success rate is neither true nor random. most people can agree they get shocked more with impossibly low success rates succeeding than what should at least guarantee a 1 in 4 no matter what. it almost feels like the actual success rate is whats missing between the success rate and 100, untill you have 100 then it works just fine


Edit: IMO crafting and gathering should have yes the initial success rating but scale based alot like how desunthesis works. Lets be real you crated a million of these damn leather wristbands, how often are you really going to fail at it at this point? its like rolling a d 20 for something a person can do in their sleep. "im sorry sir, you failed to turn the knob on the door, you die instantly"

[MN_14]

Edit: IMO crafting and gathering should have yes the initial success rating but scale based alot like how desunthesis works. Lets be real you crated a million of these damn leather wristbands, how often are you really going to fail at it at this point? its like rolling a d 20 for something a person can do in their sleep. "im sorry sir, you failed to turn the knob on the door, you die instantly"

RNG can seem quite streaky at times from my experience and I honestly don't know whether it's due to their algorithms or confirmation bias. One thing I do know though is that the % you see is the correct one over a large enough sample size. It averages out.

If there's a scaling system like desynthesis, crafts will definitely be far far too easy. You'd be able to increase your success rates just by running a macro over and over. Currently, you can already craft 4* from all NQ mats and HQ close to 95% of the time as long as you take the time to learn the system and avoid mechanically running a rotation or macro repeatedly (rotations will teach you how the base skills work only; you won't really learn RNG management/adaptation with either).

There will be crafts where you miss 7-8 times but they're relatively rare. 5-6 misses are more common (maybe 1 in 10 crafts), but you normally have a decent shot at recovering from those. From all NQ, it's not uncommon to have 5 misses and still end up with 80-90% (4*). With higher starting quality, you can recover to 100%. Start with high quality, and even 7-8 misses is recoverable.

A crafters own understanding of the abilities plus management of RNG has an effect on their overall success rates, allowing for more player differentiation. I treat NQs as part of a system where your goal is to be able to maximize your HQ yield.

[SeriousxSarcasm]

You know how bad it is? My sis dropped any form of steady hand in her crafting rotations, because she still gets the same result when she doesn't use them, and can save CP for other abilities.

I dunno, even if it is random, it's almost like a slap in the face when you put in that much effort, get your stuff to 95% chance HQ, and RNG gives you the middle finger (multiple times, in fact!). It's one of the main reasons why I gave up on crafting seriously lol. But there's not much to be done about it really.

[MN_14]

I dunno, even if it is random, it's almost like a slap in the face when you put in that much effort, get your stuff to 95% chance HQ, and RNG gives you the middle finger (multiple times, in fact!). It's one of the main reasons why I gave up on crafting seriously lol. But there's not much to be done about it really.

Yep, it's definitely frustrating sometimes. There have been a lot of crafts where missed 5 times, but managed to recover back to 90% only for the craft to NQ. However, on even a 4* craft, you can craft from 0-100% the majority of the time anyways. I dislike RNG when it seems to be overly streaky, but the thing is, RNG is also the only part of the current system that gives an incentive for a crafter to learn and improve their crafting techniques. Your own strategies really can make a difference.

[Rongway]

what should at least guarantee a 1 in 4

I had to stop reading the thread as soon as I read this to respond, because it shows lack of comprehension of a very important point that everyone needs to understand before we can have any sort of discussion about probability that isn't completely wrong.

If the probability is not 0% or 100%, there are no guarantees.

[CookieMonsta]

Edit: IMO crafting and gathering should have yes the initial success rating but scale based alot like how desunthesis works. Lets be real you crated a million of these damn leather wristbands, how often are you really going to fail at it at this point? its like rolling a d 20 for something a person can do in their sleep. "im sorry sir, you failed to turn the knob on the door, you die instantly"

What you feel and see has nothing to do what the universe decides. Whether the universe is a deterministic system or not is a philosophical debate for another time. Like I said, I can only assume the devs weren't lying when they said that FFXIV uses a Mersenne Twister system. If such a statement is true, then they are trying to implement an algorithm that closely emulates true random (while yes the algorithm repeats itself after 10^23 iterations or something).

So assuming they have built a reasonably believable true random system, it is entirely possible to miss 5 hits with a 99% chance of success. If they were lying and implemented something other than Mersenne Twister then its a different beast entirely.
And the sucky part about true random? outliers can exist. Shielded systems like what you mentioned remove the possibility of outliers, but unless you can view the source code of the game, we can only assume your information is confirmation bias.

Some citations
This is where they mentioned FFXIV uses a Mersenne Twister
http://forum.square-enix.com/ffxiv/t...Random-Comment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_Twister

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

[Felis]

Edit: IMO crafting and gathering should have yes the initial success rating but scale based alot like how desunthesis works. Lets be real you crated a million of these damn leather wristbands, how often are you really going to fail at it at this point? its like rolling a d 20 for something a person can do in their sleep. "im sorry sir, you failed to turn the knob on the door, you die instantly"

It depend on if you upgraded your equipment or still use the equip of an apprentice. High experience in crafting something can't do much if the equip is shit.
If you can't get it near 100% then the equip is not good enough (or you messed up your skills)

Your example with rolling a d20 to open a door will be 100% with a nomal hand (good equip), 75% with a broken hand and 25% if the whole arm is broken. And 0% if you are armless

[Zojha]

I depend on if you upgraded your equipment or still use the equip of an apprentice.

Except that equipment plays no factor in the RNG, for crafting at least.

Your failure rate on a level 1 recipe is the same in full HQ ironworks as in level 1 equipment. The equipment only affects how many times you need to roll by boosting the progression numbers on a successful attempt. In the door example, you'd have a fixed failure rate to open the door (you have to get creative on how that works) and depending on the quality of your boots, shirt, gloves and pants, you'd be able to open it to any degree from barely one inch to fully opening it in one go. And Gucci is OP, clearly.

[Felis]

Except that equipment plays no factor in the RNG, for crafting at least.

Your failure rate on a level 1 recipe is the same in full HQ ironworks as in level 1 equipment.

With HQ ironwork you will get the chance for HQ to 100% without any trouble. Who would fail to get a HQ from a lv1 recipe with that equip?
The equip play a role, because the better the equip the easier it is to get 100% or at least to come really near that 100%

[Aramina]

With HQ ironwork you will get the chance for HQ to 100% without any trouble. Who would fail to get a HQ from a lv1 recipe with that equip?
The equip play a role, because the better the equip the easier it is to get 100% or at least to come really near that 100%

I think maybe she was talking about quick synthesis, BUT... even if so that was changed with patch 3.5 as well. From the patch notes:

"The difficulty for synthesizing HQ items using Quick Synthesis has been reduced.

Higher gear attributes in relation to the recipe's difficulty will increase your chances of crafting HQ items."