This game has seriously messed up RNG

[Frizze]

By all accounts, the RNG method that the game uses is one of the highest quality ones available if your goal is true randomness(several people have argued for weighted probability - failing making you more likely to succeed in the future - but thats a separate argument and a core change to the way the game works that is highly unlikely to happen). You said that considering a single instance is wrong, but thats literally all the game looks at. When you press the button for synth(or whatever) it randomly determines success/failure based on the percentages. It doesnt consider whether you failed or not the last 5 times you tried, it only looks at the current attempt. I leveled all 8 crafters to 60 without help, as well as all 3 gatherers. Ive hand crafted roughly 10000-12000 items in that time, and gathered two or three times that many. Ive had 98% successes fail, ive had 1% successes work. I will tell you that in my experience the system is working as intended, as have several other people. This is really more of a psychological issue for many people - they remember their failures much more readily then their victories. The reason Elamys mentioned the gamblers fallacy(and linked to a description) is because it is directly related to this phenomenon. Many casinos put up a board of the most recent 10-20 spins on a roulette wheel because they know people will look at it and think that they can tell what will happen next based on what happened last. This causes them to bet more and lose more - the casinos goal. The wheel doesnt care if the last 200 spins were all black(as unlikely as that would be), the next one is just as likely to be black again as it is to be red - but people in general ignore or dont understand that.

[Llus]

Try the following: spend a couple of hours running /random and recording and plotting the results, I guarantee you will not see a pattern and that distribution is fairly even

[Critical-Limit]

Why aren't people using reclaim if they're failing that many hasty touches?

[Elamys]

They're probably scared by the fact that Reclaim still has a chance to fail, but I've failed reclaim so rarely that, yes, I definitely think 90% is still 90%.

[XiXiQ]

reclaim was when I stopped taking crafting seriously. It failed every third time.

[MN_14]

Crafters have tested the percentages before and yes, reclaim is actually 90% but you have to have a large enough sample size to confirm that. Everything really does average out so the % you see is accurate. Yes, you can have strings of misses, but I've also seen consecutive crafts where every last HT landed.

The bottom line is that while RNG is present, everyone is subject to the same effects. We all play by the same rules. Some do better than others and that simply boils down to a crafter's own handling of the mechanics.

Does it feel unfair when you 100% a whole bunch of crafts and then suddenly NQ the only two crafts that fell below to 91%? Yes, but it's part of the system. Most of the time, you'll get the HQ and whoever can consistently get 91% will HQ a lot more crafts than the person who only can manage 70%. So your ability as a crafter makes a difference.

The designers have given the player a lot of tools use. Even when crafting 4* from all NQ, there aren't too many situations where I'm at major risk of an NQ. Due to the balance and overpowered gear/abilities in HW, building 11 stacks of IQ is practically a given. I don't fall to 10 IQ too often and rarely fall into the single digits (maybe 1/30+). From all NQ, the only time I really get concerned is when I hit the 6+ miss mark. Missing 4 times does not pose any real problem and 5 misses can go either way (but it's still mostly HQ). The more robust your strategy is, the better you'll be able to mitigate misses.

Start with a moderate amount of quality and you should be fine almost 100% of the time.

[XiXiQ]

yes, you will have "strings of misses" the minute you start. I gave up on reclaim before HW, and even the small amount of crafting I do now still gives me "strings of misses" on every third craft. Seems my "string" started 3 years ago and hasn't finished yet. Last week - RS failed 5 times in a row under steady hand, and I barely craft at all anymore. (that's not what I'd call rare either, I probably see it weekly). If all these "if you do it a zillion times" claims are true, I should practically never see failure at all at my modest level - yet it keeps happening, the same pattern, over and over and over.

The RNG is either fine - in which case, there is no need for mitigation (because the numbers will bear it out). If you need to mitigate, the RNG simply isn't throwing out the expected numbers.

[MN_14]

I gave up on reclaim before HW, and even the small amount of crafting I do now still gives me "strings of misses" on every third craft. Seems my "string" started 3 years ago and hasn't finished yet. Last week - RS failed 5 times in a row under steady hand, and I barely craft at all anymore. (that's not what I'd call rare either, I probably see it weekly). If all these "if you do it a zillion times" claims are true, I should practically never see failure at all at my modest level - yet it keeps happening, the same pattern, over and over and over.

The RNG is either fine - in which case, there is no need for mitigation (because the numbers will bear it out). If you need to mitigate, the RNG simply isn't throwing out the expected numbers.

That's not how RNG works. Even with 11 HTs at 80% success, it can be calculated that that you will have 4 or more misses 16% of the time. Although, it will average out to 2-3 misses over a large sample size, the spread is known to be mostly 0-5 misses. The more RS or HT you use, the larger your spread. That's why you have to be able to mitigate misses (in terms of averages, the times you have few to no misses will offset your large numbers of misses and bring you to that average 2-3) and use other skills to manipulate the probabilities. It's part of the design and the strategy that the designers want you to employ.

If you're using a smaller sample size, you're much more likely to see discrepancies form the average than if you were to use a large sample size (ie. doing it a zillion times).

4-6 misses in a craft is normal and yes, I see it in every crafting session I go through. It is expected and you're supposed to be able to respond to it.

[XiXiQ]

That's not how RNG works. Even with 11 HTs at 80% success, it can be calculated that that you will have 4 or more misses 16% of the time.

If you're using a smaller sample size, you're much more likely to see discrepancies form the average than if you were to use a large sample size (ie. doing it a zillion times).

Then why do I see that pattern far more than 16%? I see it more like 30-40% of the time. It's tiresome, sitting there eye-rolling every time I'm crafting 10-20 items for something. and my gear is sufficient it doesn't really affect the outcome anymore. It's simply not working as it should, and it never has for the last 3 years I've been doing it. Just because you seem to be OK with the RNG, don't simply discount stories that bring it into question.

[Elamys]

I think we all are more inclined to believe actual numbers as opposed to biased anecdotes about how it doesn't work. If it helps at all, I'll make a list of Hasty Touches taken vs. succeeded and we can go from there, but that will take me a bit of time.