Quote Originally Posted by Ghishlain View Post
I'm no statistician, so anyone with more knowledge in field can correct my logic if I'm mistaken. If I recall my math properly, here's the logic.

The first 1/3 is the chance of you drawing the desired card (Arrow / Balance). This is a 33.3% probability
...
This is a little overcomplicated. All you need to do is calculate the probability of not getting a card you want and inverting that to get the probability of the card you want showing up. Basically, 1 - (2/3)*(2/3) = 0.55555555555555 = 55.5%. It's also quite easy to calculate the chances of drawing the card you want if shuffle can't redraw a card: 1 - (4/6)*(3/6) = 2/3 = 66.6666666666% for getting either arrow or balance and 1 - (5/6) * (4/6) = 44.4444444444444% to draw a specific card using shuffle.