A DPS Simulator 2 - SimFF

[pandabearcat]

Std dev for a binomial distribution is sqrt(np(1-p)).

Confidence is std/sqrt(n)

You want this small.

If you have lower crit, you want to do more trials, because the standard error relative to the probability is higher.

[Kenji1134]

Well the simplest solution is to grab ACT, which has been updated for 3.0, and autoattack a dummy.
Your crit rate is the same whether you are using weaponskills or autoattacks, so afk at the dummy for 10-20-30 minutes, that will get you several hundred if not a thousand hits.
And ACT will automatically tell you what your crit % is.

If you are looking for the crit damage bonus as well, then sort the data in ACT by whether the attack crit or not, copy it into Excel, average the 2 sets, and divide the results to get a sense of the crit bonus. Again this is best with 500-1000 data points.

[SunnyHirose]

You can't actually say what the rate is, but you can say there's a such-and-such chance it is within a certain range of the number you came up with. This is the confidence interval on a proportion. So if you had 2263 crits in 10000 swings and wanted a 95% confidence interval, you could say there your margin of error is 1.96 * sqrt(.2263*0.7737/10000) + 0.5/10000 = 0.00825133679 (a 95% chance that the rate is between 21.80% and 23.46%).

I'm saying this because the number of swings is but one factor here--the closer the observed rate is to 50%, the more swings you'd need to establish the same margin of error.

Edit: whoa, it's a kenji sighting

[Viridiana]

Std dev for a binomial distribution is sqrt(np(1-p)).

Confidence is std/sqrt(n)

You want this small.

If you have lower crit, you want to do more trials, because the standard error relative to the probability is higher.

One of these days, I really need to take a statistics class. >_>

I get the second term, but just to make sure I have the first one right, that's sqrt(swings*odds(odds-not)), correct? And yeah, presumably low leveling crit is part of why I'm waiting to 60. That, and more gear means more possible crit values.

Well the simplest solution is to grab ACT, which has been updated for 3.0, and autoattack a dummy.
Your crit rate is the same whether you are using weaponskills or autoattacks, so afk at the dummy for 10-20-30 minutes. . .

Everything you said is basically what I planned, except that the afk kick timer is still a thing for a while, so I can't just sit there

Besides, throwing in AOE abilities makes the swing count rise faster, even if it's mind-numbingly boring.

You can't actually say what the rate is, but you can say there's a such-and-such chance it is within a certain range of the number you came up with. This is the confidence interval on a proportion. So if you had 2263 crits in 10000 swings and wanted a 95% confidence interval, you could say there your margin of error is 1.96 * sqrt(.2263*0.7737/10000) + 0.5/10000 = 0.00825133679 (a 95% chance that the rate is between 21.80% and 23.46%).

I'm saying this because the number of swings is but one factor here--the closer the observed rate is to 50%, the more swings you'd need to establish the same margin of error.

Edit: whoa, it's a kenji sighting

That's basically what I meant by "establish," since we all know there won't be any certainty until either SE gives us the real formula (I can dream!) or one of us gets hired and steals it. >_>

[Dervy]

One of these days, I really need to take a statistics class. >_>

This is why I wish I continued statistics when I were younger <_<...

Also, welcome back Kenji haha. Everyones returning it seems.

[pandabearcat]

Statistics was both the most boring and the most useful class I ever took.

Anyway good news on the parser front, I was able to work on it for like, almost 45 min today! Woo.

I've fully defined the BNF grammar for it, and finally compiled Irony and looked through a bit of documentation.

Tomorrow will be heavy development actually translating BNF into the C# that Irony needs.

Wed will be trying to figure out how to attach rules to nonterminals.

Thurs will be crying because I'm pretty sure I need to change the engine some more to support the parser commands I want to add.

Friday will be "release" totally, yea, definitely going to happen. Yep.

[SunnyHirose]

Wed will be trying to figure out how to attach rules to nonterminals.

That does seem to be where its documentation falls silent... so here, I saved you a few minutes of research. Or maybe an hour depending on how red-herring prone you are.

The short version: you are supposed to use the AST it comes up with.

[Junified]

I am willing to help with Bard simulations.

[pandabearcat]

Hah, what a great language.

Thank you for the research. I'll work on it more today and see if it won't be too hard to get at least a parser going.

Junified, the most useful stuff I need is animation delays. Without that data pretty much every oGCD class is going to have a flawed sim. It isn't too necessary to be exactly precise, but we need to be precise enough that if someone is trying to stuff 2 oGCDs into a GCD that it will delay their next attack some.

So basically I need the animations delays of every ability, GCD and oGCD.

At some point we also need updated damage formulas but that is really grindy afk work so maybe talk to Dervy or Viridiana.

[Viridiana]

You can't actually say what the rate is, but you can say there's a such-and-such chance it is within a certain range of the number you came up with. This is the confidence interval on a proportion. So if you had 2263 crits in 10000 swings and wanted a 95% confidence interval, you could say there your margin of error is 1.96 * sqrt(.2263*0.7737/10000) + 0.5/10000 = 0.00825133679 (a 95% chance that the rate is between 21.80% and 23.46%).

So, based on all the attacks I've done this morning, 917 crits out of 7491 swings, giving me a rate between 11.49% and 12.99% (at 95% confidence)? This is at 657 Crit rating, btw.