First time posting in the lore forum, and I have been awake about 24 hours too. Time for my two cents. Though likely a dollar fifty by the time I am done....
The Sultana- Firstly the vibe I got from the whole drawn out smiling and goblet swirling bit was just a sort of Shakespearian dramatic effect. Secondly I most certainly think she is very very dead, and that little rat of a lalafel knew about how long it would take to work AND with the ear of the handmaiden, an inside guess as to how long the conversation would be even. The reason I feel this way is the sultana barely makes any noise, and the walls of her room are stone with a heavy wooden door, sound does not travel through that stuff very well. You as the character barely had enough time to be shocked before they busted in the room screaming regicide at you, all staged and planned.
The poison- Our good friend in the 4th Braves got waylaid trying to warn us of the depth of corruption, perhaps even wind of a plan and they 3rd took the opportunity to frame us more. The general lack of time before this huge social and diplomatic event is why you still have the darned thing on you when you get 'caught' (though they probably could've planted another one on you anyways) and that evidence as well as the body being withheld is protecting implication of the monetarists because the poison in question is likely very rare, very expensive, and possibly even a magical poison in nature, the sort of thing that could get traced back to them as few can afford such an expensive and likely illegal substance. The body of course is not getting a proper autopsy, further disallowing to see if the substance in the vial is ACTUALLY the same as what killed her, though he yells something to this effect when you get ingloriously tossed to the floor all tied up, I doubt that any actual tests were done in the implied short timeframe.
The hush hush- while the plan to turn Ul'dah into a republic would probably be ill for monetarists, I think it all comes back to politics and more importantly law. likely the sultana had a very specific way to dissolve her monarchy and replace it with a new government in a legal fashion within the dictates of her power. the longer the sultana is 'ill' the longer the monetarists have to dig their grubby little fingers Into every crack of Ul'dah and cement their power before making it look like she wasted away after some mysterious disease or some such. creating a power vacuum in their favor. This was backup plan seeing as how their intended scapegoat, the WoL, escaped
The escape- The lack of weapon I can assume is due to personally meeting the sultana, seeing as the other scions apparently didn't turn theirs in for the banquet. Also the game really has been consistent in including your weapon in cutscenes with you and the absence speaks volumes. If there's one thing I find myself constantly thinking it's how much I love the little details in this game. This makes sense, you don't go see the president or the queen without a patdown. As far as the character having power with or without their weapon, it played perfectly into how I canonically see my character. I main scholar and (as someone else pointed out too) take the 'bring your most stalwart companions' comments before trials and such to heart. The way I see my unique power playing out as making a difference, I am a leader and use my magic and strategy to bolster those who would otherwise be unable to overcome. A sort of power beyond their limits so to speak, not dissimilar to how the WoL uses the Echo. I would not be so great by myself in a fight vs that sword wielding maniac Ilberd. As for the 'armies' thing, that's a load because the scions are clearly doing that. Yda and Papalymo are fighting hordes of neverending blades and braves at a choke point. those that catch up in the tunnel, Y'shtola and Thancred do the same. As a sidenote I couldn't help but think how that particular scene, if there was a romance involved, would have had the whole 'I might never see you again' impulse kiss. That aside, I don't believe the scions to be dead, they had the ambiguous fade out deal, but I do expect it to be an agonizing wait to see if that is true. (with the lore tidbit about astrologian being Sharlyan, it makes me feel almost like I will be learning it in memoriam to them)
The other leaders- The shmoozing I can understand even though my feelings mirror Alphinaud's about them taking credit for our work. They are doing their jobs as diplomats- trying to bring in a new ally. Also I get the feeling Aymeric has a hint of something afoot but knows he can ill afford being dragged into it with his own country in peril. Kan-E and Merlwyb, I can even understand their need to vacate the premises, they cannot and should not take sides in a civil war because of their positions as leaders. what upset me was the lack of COMMENT. Merlwyb was ever one to speak her mind, and Kan-E? Really? not even an innocent sort of 'surely, it couldn't be HER, there must be some mistake?!' Not a friggin peep. Minfilia and the scions had barely a word to defend themselves either, when accused of sorcery. everyone just let the little guy waltz in and believed him, right off the bat. On an emotional level I was possessed of a great desire to murder the midget, and both upset that Raubahn robbed me of it but happy at least he died at the same time. I admit I did not suspect Ilberd himself of treachery.
Midgardsormr- I am wondering if the little shoulder dragon is invisible/inaudible to others. though we generally see ourselves as alone when he makes comment, its not entirely so. As in we see no one else on screen but are in an environment we know ambient people to be about. I am most curious to see how his plot with the WoL develops.
Tataru/Urianger- I didn't get any sort of suspicious vibe at all, and as for her coking the books it seemed to me as if she was in charge of the scions and only the scions, and had her hands full enough as it is. Alphinaud clearly had braves doing their own accounting, and that's part of how it was hidden and that poor sod died for poking around. I dropped my jaw wide open at the bit with Urianger and the ascians, and all I can think is I cannot wait to see what happens. He did help Tataru escape, she said, so if he DOES have any duplicity its downright subtle and probably in a fashion that he cannot or will not act out of character towards any scions. Snape comes to mind...
Yugiri and the Au Ra- I was rather upset at how they just GLOSSED OVER Yugiri's face. That wasn't even a voice acted scene to hallmark the occasion that should have been momentous. No mention of her people, no explanation, she isn't chillin in the intercessory to even make small talk with, or just admire her model. I was REALLY hoping for something that was enough to tie in the Auri race as the new playable race, any INKLING as to how it might fit in to the current plot, not to mention the whole looks-draconic-goin-to-Ishgard debacle.
Overall- I absolutely loved every moment of this unfolding plot. I was emotionally invested in all of it and was on pins and needles for the two hours or whatever of cutscenes saying 'oh I'm gonna KILL him please can I kill him' , 'oh NO, they can't go!' , '*gasp* I don't believe he was in on it all along', etc etc. the placement of the carriage that you start the game in was particularly great imo because after all that friggin heartwrench, I needed a laugh. Some questions were answered yes but many more left in their wake. I have that feeling of ending a book or a season of a tv show and being all like "I have to wait HOW long for the next bit?!" I have faith in SE to deliver.
I feel like I am forgetting some other point I wanted to make but I don't remember....oh well.

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