RNG: How fake is it?

[Meier]

People always seem to think that the % is based on 100 tries. Its not, it is a % of that try and that try only.

Then what is the 95% out of? If not 100, then what? >.> Percentage has to be out of something. 1000? 2000? a million? lol

I guess we may never know >.>

[Eye_Gore]

Then what is the 95% out of? If not 100, then what? >.> Percentage has to be out of something. 1000? 2000? a million? lol

I guess we may never know >.>

Its out of a 100% chance you'll get it on that try. Alot of people think that the percentage is based on 100 tries. So that if you have a 95% chance at something if you craft 100 of them 95 will make it, or if its a 5% chance then 5 out of 100 will make it.

That is not how the system works, its all based on a single try. It is mostly noticeable on gathering classes and % chance at gathering a HQ item. If you have 20% chance at HQ and gather 100 times, chances are your gathered HQ item is going to be more or less than 20 gathered. Same goes for crafting.

I guess maybe think of it as a roll of the die. A die has 6 sides, 6 numbers. You have a 1 in 6 chance (or a 16.6% chance) you will roll a 2. Roll the die 6 (or 100) times, how many times will you get a 2? You may get it once, twice, or 6 times, (more or less than 16) Now this example has to deal with the physical world so variations exist, like what RNG tries to accomplish.

[Meier]

Its out of a 100% chance you'll get it on that try.

Not trying to argue by any means, just sincerely asking - where in the game does it specify it is out of 100 tries?

[Eye_Gore]

Not trying to argue by any means, just sincerely asking - where in the game does it specify it is out of 100 tries?

It doesn't and I never said it does. Merely was saying that alot of people assumed that it was as there are a ton of threads about crafting RNG.

[sheriff_bell]

I feel your pain, i had 13 attempts at over melds today ranging from about 20-30% and was successful once.
I also had 7 attempts at desyntesizing ex primal accessories at 40% and got one.
Then to top it all off while i was crafting a rose gold choker, my hasty touches, which with steady hand 2 applied should have been at 80%, i hit 3 out of 9.
I now have one broken ps4 controller. It seems to me the rng seems to work more against you than it does for you.

[StouterTaru]

Alot of people think that the percentage is based on 100 tries..

Why would anyone think that percent is out of 100?

[Sibyll]

Why would anyone think that percent is out of 100?

If I had to guess it's because percent literally translates to per 100 and because in school people are generally taught that x% is the same as x/100. Not everyone has taken a statistics course and understand sample sizes.

Some one has already stated this, but I don't see why they even bother showing the percentage if the statistics are going to be based on 50,000 tries. At that point what meaning does this have? With the exception of Good/Excellent procs, the way RNG is handled in melding/crafting is very binary and that's part of the reason it's so easy to complain about. If you fail 20 melds on a 45% chance there isn't much you can do. If you fail 80% of your Hasty Touch + Steady Hand II spam and then fail your Reclaim, there isn't much you can do.