RNG: How fake is it?

[shintashi]

So you get a craft going, or a materia meld set up, and you are about to hit the button.

You look at your gil and your material supply, and checked the market board and retainers. Your good stuff probably isn't selling for 3 days, maybe 3 weeks, and you know if you miss this hit, you're probably out quite a bit of time and money.

90%. Can you trust it? NQ.
5% meld? well 5x20 is 100, so 25 should probably work, right? LOL. No.

For those of us who haven't been Sleeping with Tyche on our off hours, there's probably something fundamentally fake about RNG used by FF!4.

The numbers they display are so hideously off, and the cycles so unreliable, you just have to ask, is anyone else experiencing this?

[Judge_Xero]

All I can say is that 60% of the time it's working as intended every time. So please look forward to it.

[Tayolynn]

Sometimes I feel that the rarer the item, the bigger the RNG lie gets.

[RichardButte]

I'd say it's confirmation bias, though the RNG DOES seem to cheat its dirty little head off in this game.

I can count the number of times I've HQed an item at 5% HQ chance on one hand, but I cannot count the number of times I've had an item be NQ when the HQ bar is at 95%...

[Black91CRX]

5% meld?

That's a 95% chance it won't ever work. You could technically get screwed an infinite amount of times lol

[shintashi]

i spent a fair number of years doing RPGs dice and programming them alike. 95% is just 95%. it is not 99.999999999999% 95% is just like saying 'you will never roll a natural 20 on a d20". Which, frankly, is the byproduct of an elaborate imagination.

I think if FF14 is playing with the chaos of saying, "well, it's theoretically possible to keep rolling 33 a hundred times..." then they need a self correcting RNG using an iteration to govern a given number of sets.

[Eye_Gore]

5% meld? well 5x20 is 100, so 25 should probably work, right? LOL. No.

People always seem to think that the % is based on 100 tries. Its not, it is a % of that try and that try only.

[Sibyll]

People always seem to think that the % is based on 100 tries. Its not, it is a % of that try and that try only.

I don't see why they don't just make higher melds take more materia of that type and tier rather than continue to use dice rolls. For example, first overmeld would be x2, second overmeld would be x4, third overmeld would be x8, 4th overmeld would be x16.

I mean it's not like RNG materia melding is a deep and engrossing gameplay mechanic, unless you are a masochist. Either that or rework it into a mini-game like crafting so there is some type of element that the player interacts with besides throwing money at the Market Board.

[Meier]

People always seem to think that the % is based on 100 tries. Its not, it is a % of that try and that try only.

Then what is the 95% out of? If not 100, then what? >.> Percentage has to be out of something. 1000? 2000? a million? lol

I guess we may never know >.>

[Eye_Gore]

Then what is the 95% out of? If not 100, then what? >.> Percentage has to be out of something. 1000? 2000? a million? lol

I guess we may never know >.>

Its out of a 100% chance you'll get it on that try. Alot of people think that the percentage is based on 100 tries. So that if you have a 95% chance at something if you craft 100 of them 95 will make it, or if its a 5% chance then 5 out of 100 will make it.

That is not how the system works, its all based on a single try. It is mostly noticeable on gathering classes and % chance at gathering a HQ item. If you have 20% chance at HQ and gather 100 times, chances are your gathered HQ item is going to be more or less than 20 gathered. Same goes for crafting.

I guess maybe think of it as a roll of the die. A die has 6 sides, 6 numbers. You have a 1 in 6 chance (or a 16.6% chance) you will roll a 2. Roll the die 6 (or 100) times, how many times will you get a 2? You may get it once, twice, or 6 times, (more or less than 16) Now this example has to deal with the physical world so variations exist, like what RNG tries to accomplish.