% for melding materia is broken

[AttacKat]

To sum up. (You roll, you fail, end roll)(You roll, you fail, end roll)(You roll, you fail, end roll) ect....
it's not. You roll, You fail, You fail, You fail, You fail, You fail, end roll. your failures are not in a row.

The law of probability.

As you increase your trial number, the chances of you getting it should become higher. Go flip a coin and see what is the probability of you failing to flip a head 10 times in a roll. (hint -> 1/2 ^ 10 = 0.00097 = almost zero)

41% can be many things, but the end result is, IF you roll X number of times, the success rate should be 41%.

So ...

roll (fail 0.0x) 1x = 0%
roll (fail 0.0x) 2x = 0% (next roll should be a success)
roll (success 33%) 3x = 33%
Why?

The condition is total chances, if you did a trial of 1000, you should have 410 success. If you did a trial of 2, you MIGHT have 1 success, because your 50% is outside of the 41%, so you still have 8% failure rate. But if you did a trial of 3, you should have at least 1 success since you went from 100% -> 50% -> 33%.

Therefore, out of 14 rolls, the person should have at least 5.74 successes, which means he should have at least 5 successes, and possible 6th.

Do not believe I am right? Go ahead, go roll a dice (17%) and see how far you can go w/o getting a 1 or 2 (34%).