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  1. #1
    Player
    Wobi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Uldah
    Posts
    624
    Character
    Aria Erabith
    World
    Malboro
    Main Class
    Miner Lv 100
    Just be glad it's not 1.0 melding. You failed you lost it ALL, I'm happy to play the RNG game all day without my several million gil item blowing up in my face
    (13)

  2. #2
    Player
    Volcano's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    386
    Character
    Infernia Heart
    World
    Famfrit
    Main Class
    Conjurer Lv 87
    41% is not a good probability, it even warns you that it has a high chance to fail, this is RNG, nothing more, nothing less. It's just bad luck.
    (3)

  3. #3
    Player
    Alistaire's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Posts
    2,980
    Character
    Your Character
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Blue Mage Lv 60
    For every post like this there's 97% other people out there experiencing the "normal" side of statistics.
    (6)

  4. #4
    Player
    Fawkes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    2,916
    Character
    Fawkes Macleod
    World
    Excalibur
    Main Class
    White Mage Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Alistaire View Post
    For every post like this there's 97% other people out there experiencing the "normal" side of statistics.
    Well technically it should be 99.94% other people, so you're admitting it is broken.
    (0)

  5. #5
    Player
    Dano's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2012
    Posts
    513
    Character
    Danorille Pandemonium
    World
    Tonberry
    Main Class
    Blacksmith Lv 61
    i successfully melded a 10% on my third try, and using a heaven's eye IV, feels good man.
    (1)
    Last edited by Dano; 08-26-2014 at 02:06 PM.

  6. #6
    Player
    Gramul's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Ul'dah
    Posts
    5,203
    Character
    Eisen Gramul
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    Blacksmith Lv 90
    Having 41% chance means you have a 41% chance every time you do it. Don't fall victim to gamblers fallacy.
    (18)

  7. #7
    Player
    Haibel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    648
    Character
    Lona Shiri
    World
    Hyperion
    Main Class
    Gladiator Lv 91
    Quote Originally Posted by Gramul View Post
    Having 41% chance means you have a 41% chance every time you do it. Don't fall victim to gamblers fallacy.
    QFT. I don't know why people want to think it's 41% out of 100 attempts. Every time you roll, you roll from zero
    (5)

  8. #8
    Player
    Fawkes's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Posts
    2,916
    Character
    Fawkes Macleod
    World
    Excalibur
    Main Class
    White Mage Lv 100
    Quote Originally Posted by Haibel View Post
    QFT. I don't know why people want to think it's 41% out of 100 attempts. Every time you roll, you roll from zero
    If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.
    (3)

  9. #9
    Player
    Dgsoil's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    Ul'dah
    Posts
    257
    Character
    C'desh Lios
    World
    Sargatanas
    Main Class
    Rogue Lv 90
    Quote Originally Posted by Fawkes View Post
    If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.
    The post wasn't saying it isn't 41/100%, it was saying it isn't 41% x 100 rolls. it's 41% x 1 roll, you fail or you pass. Your streak has no effect on the system, each time you try again it is back down to acting like it is your first roll. It doesn't maliciously decide ahead of time that you will fail 100 times in a row because it doesn't like you.
    (3)

  10. #10
    Player
    ispano's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    2,753
    Character
    Melfina Amastacia
    World
    Excalibur
    Main Class
    Lancer Lv 60
    Quote Originally Posted by Fawkes View Post
    If it is an actual 41% chance, then you expect the results to be 41 out of 100. That's literally what a percent is, a ratio out of 100. Saying 41% is the exact same thing as saying 41/100.
    No, you don't. Over a long string of attempts it would equalize around there, but making 10 attempts you could fail all 10. Expecting otherwise is wrong.
    (1)

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