Atma farm and why it will be nerfed.

[Clavaat]

-snip-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Basically, the idea is, it is not based on how many you do, but each on individually. You cannot base it off of time, because that would be a fallacy. 2.5% chance on one FATE is still a 2.5% chance on another. In other words, going by your time will not make sense based on other peoples' time. You each have a 2.5% chance per FATE. To make it simpler, let's say its a 50% drop rate. This does not mean in 2 FATEs, you should or are more likely to get the drop. It is calculated each and every time you enter.

Therefore, farming for 15 minutes (another hyperbole on my part, I apologize), has the same odds as doing it for 5 hours. Your odds don't change based on the amount you do.

[Aegis]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Basically, the idea is, it is not based on how many you do, but each on individually. You cannot base it off of time, because that would be a fallacy. 2.5% chance on one FATE is still a 2.5% chance on another. In other words, going by your time will not make sense based on other peoples' time. You each have a 2.5% chance per FATE. To make it simpler, let's say its a 50% drop rate. This does not mean in 2 FATEs, you should or are more likely to get the drop. It is calculated each and every time you enter.

Therefore, farming for 15 minutes (another hyperbole on my part, I apologize), has the same odds as doing it for 5 hours. Your odds don't change based on the amount you do.

It's not an example of Gambler's Fallacy. If I were saying I've done x amounts of FATEs therefore my chance of getting the Atma on the next one is higher than if I'd only done one, that would be gambler's fallacy. I am extrapolating a likely timeframe from a sample set. That's how statistics work.

Flipping a coin once has a 50/50 chance of not getting a Heads.

Flipping a coin 100 times has a 1.268 to the 28th power of not getting a Heads

The odds of the 100th flip being a heads is still 50/50 but the chance of none of the previous flips returning a Heads is Vanishingly Small. Which is a statistical term for techinically possible but in practice close enough to impossible to not be considered.

You can assume rough timeframes from a known occurrence frequency. The precise occurrence frequency is not known but we do have a rough idea of it from testimonials from players. I know of no-one who got them all in less than 12 hours of play, and I know scores of people doing them.