Atma farm and why it will be nerfed.

[Aegis]

You don't know that.

I don't know that, but I know it's possible. From the people I've spoken to, my drop rate is far from unusual.

It could very well take longer. It's taken me roundabout 45 hours of play to get 10 Atma. That's 4.5 hours each. If I had farmed it in 15 minute sessions with the same drop rate then it would take 18 days per Atma.

There are people in my linkshells/FC with far worse luck than me also.

At 6 mo per weapon, it would take 4.5 years to get all my relics past the Atma stage.

But that isn't how drop rates work.

I'm assuming my drop rate is relatively normal. Certainly, conversations with ls/fc members and people on the forums gives me no reason to belive it's atypical.

Do you have a reason to believe only farming FATEs in short stints gives a better drop rate than marathon sessions?

[Clavaat]

-snip-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Basically, the idea is, it is not based on how many you do, but each on individually. You cannot base it off of time, because that would be a fallacy. 2.5% chance on one FATE is still a 2.5% chance on another. In other words, going by your time will not make sense based on other peoples' time. You each have a 2.5% chance per FATE. To make it simpler, let's say its a 50% drop rate. This does not mean in 2 FATEs, you should or are more likely to get the drop. It is calculated each and every time you enter.

Therefore, farming for 15 minutes (another hyperbole on my part, I apologize), has the same odds as doing it for 5 hours. Your odds don't change based on the amount you do.

[Aegis]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Basically, the idea is, it is not based on how many you do, but each on individually. You cannot base it off of time, because that would be a fallacy. 2.5% chance on one FATE is still a 2.5% chance on another. In other words, going by your time will not make sense based on other peoples' time. You each have a 2.5% chance per FATE. To make it simpler, let's say its a 50% drop rate. This does not mean in 2 FATEs, you should or are more likely to get the drop. It is calculated each and every time you enter.

Therefore, farming for 15 minutes (another hyperbole on my part, I apologize), has the same odds as doing it for 5 hours. Your odds don't change based on the amount you do.

It's not an example of Gambler's Fallacy. If I were saying I've done x amounts of FATEs therefore my chance of getting the Atma on the next one is higher than if I'd only done one, that would be gambler's fallacy. I am extrapolating a likely timeframe from a sample set. That's how statistics work.

Flipping a coin once has a 50/50 chance of not getting a Heads.

Flipping a coin 100 times has a 1.268 to the 28th power of not getting a Heads

The odds of the 100th flip being a heads is still 50/50 but the chance of none of the previous flips returning a Heads is Vanishingly Small. Which is a statistical term for techinically possible but in practice close enough to impossible to not be considered.

You can assume rough timeframes from a known occurrence frequency. The precise occurrence frequency is not known but we do have a rough idea of it from testimonials from players. I know of no-one who got them all in less than 12 hours of play, and I know scores of people doing them.